Celestia/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• TIAUSDT formed a bullish rebound near 0.916 after testing key support.
• Volatility expanded as price traded between 0.893 and 0.960, with volume spiking at breakouts.
• RSI remained in neutral to overbought ranges, suggesting uneven momentum.
• A high-volume bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 0.940–0.942.

The Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) pair opened at 0.924 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET and closed at 0.905 on 2025-11-13 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.960 and a low of 0.893. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 7,406,971.3 units, while notional turnover reached approximately $6.76 million. The price action suggests a period of consolidation amid high volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a key support level near 0.916, where it found a temporary floor, marked by a high-volume bullish engulfing pattern. A prior resistance level at 0.940–0.942 converted to support on a retest, forming a potential short-term base. A bearish doji appeared near 0.936, signaling possible indecision ahead of a break lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price traded above the 20SMA (0.937) but below the 50SMA (0.943), indicating a sideways consolidation phase. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA (0.926) and 200DMA (0.919) suggest a mixed near-term trend, with no strong directional bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed into positive territory during the morning session but failed to sustain the momentum, while the histogram showed a shrinking bullish signal. RSI ranged between 45 and 75, staying in neutral to overbought territory, but without a clear breakout indication.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout to 0.960, with price trading near the upper band at the high. A retest of the lower band near 0.893 confirmed its role as a support zone. Price may remain in a range-bound pattern until a clear break of either boundary.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key swing highs and lows, including the 0.960 and 0.893 levels, confirming those as structurally significant. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, particularly during the rebound from 0.916. Price and turnover aligned during bullish moves but diverged slightly during bearish retracements.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing low (0.893) and high (0.960), key levels include 38.2% at 0.928 and 61.8% at 0.948. Price retested both levels, with 0.928 acting as a short-term support and 0.948 as a resistance. A close above 0.948 may signal a resumption of the bullish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest results highlight the limitations of using MACD-based signals in isolation, particularly during periods of high volatility and choppy price action. The divergence strategy performed poorly from 2022 to 2025, with a negative overall return and a high drawdown risk profile. This underscores the need for additional filters to improve signal quality.

Adding higher-timeframe trend confirmation and volume-based entry rules could enhance risk-adjusted returns. The right-skewed payoff distribution suggests that most profitable trades were rare and small, while many trades resulted in minor losses. A disciplined approach incorporating stop-loss and take-profit levels would be essential to manage risk in this context.