Celestia/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-11

Summary
• TIAUSDT opened at $1.001 and closed at $1.021, forming a bullish reversal pattern.
• Momentum is positive as RSI approaches overbought territory, while MACD shows a bullish crossover.
• Volatility expanded after a consolidation phase, with volume surging at key breakout levels.
• Price touched 0.976 as support and 1.046 as resistance on the 15-minute chart.
• Recent Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% (1.013) and 61.8% (1.032) were respected.

Price Action and Structure

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) traded with a distinct bullish bias on November 11, 2025, opening at $1.001 and reaching a high of $1.046 before consolidating and closing at $1.021. The price action suggests a potential reversal after a bearish pullback to support at $0.976. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:45 ET, followed by a long upper shadow during a pullback to $1.019, indicating buying pressure. A morning doji at $1.004 and a bearish harami near the session high hint at internal uncertainty.

Structure and Support/Resistance

Key support levels observed include $0.991 (78.6% retracement), $0.981 (61.8%), and $0.976 (daily low). Resistance levels were seen at $1.013 (38.2% retracement), $1.028, and the session high of $1.046. The price failed to hold below $1.013 for long, suggesting this level may continue to offer strong support in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, TIAUSDT closed above both the 20-EMA ($1.019) and 50-EMA ($1.014), suggesting upward momentum. On the daily chart, the price moved above the 50-day SMA but remains below the 200-day SMA, indicating mixed signals between short-term and long-term trends.

MACD and RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line near 0.006 at around 09:00 ET, forming a bullish crossover. RSI reached 55 at the session high and pulled back to 49 by the close, remaining in neutral territory with potential for further upward movement. Momentum appears to be gathering steam, but caution is needed as RSI is close to overbought levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the upper band reaching $1.046 and the lower band hitting $0.976. Price spent much of the session between the lower and middle bands, indicating consolidation, but broke out decisively near $1.028. This suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

Volume and Turnover

Total volume reached 11,123,735 units, with notable spikes at $1.028 and $1.046, confirming the breakout. Turnover was $6,800,000, with the highest trading intensity occurring around 03:45 ET when volume reached $449,126.42. The price and volume action are aligned, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement at $1.013 acted as a strong support level, while the 61.8% retracement at $1.032 offered resistance. Daily Fibonacci levels showed less immediate impact, but the 0.618 level at $1.005 was respected during the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “MACD Death Cross Buy & RSI > 50 Exit” strategy appears well-aligned with the recent price action on TIAUSDT. With a bullish MACD crossover and RSI nearing overbought levels, this session could have triggered a long entry had the strategy been in place. The exit condition (RSI > 50) would likely activate around the 1.046 level if the price continues to trend higher. This strategy may serve as a useful framework for managing entries and exits in a low-volatility, trending environment—however, it lacks risk control measures and could face challenges during sharp corrections or choppy conditions.