Celestia/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• Price surged above key resistance to hit 1.826 before consolidating.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions, hinting at potential pullback.
• Volume remained elevated post-breakout, validating momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show low volatility earlier, expanding as price surged.
• 1.80–1.81 levels appear as strong short-term support.

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at $1.689 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $1.826 before closing at $1.818 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The pair recorded a 24-hour volume of 14,798,858.96 TIA and a total notional turnover of $26,357,575.09 (calculated using average TIA price of ~$1.80).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bullish breakout from the 1.79–1.81 range, with a key 15-minute candle on 08:45 ET printing a high of $1.825 and close of $1.816, forming a strong white candle. The 1.686–1.691 range appears as a recent pivot zone, and the 1.672 level served as temporary support. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after a bearish reversal at 1.78, which was decisively rejected.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs are aligned above 1.79 and rising, confirming bullish momentum. Daily MA lines (50/100/200) have shifted into a positive alignment with the 50-day line crossing above the 100 and 200-day lines, reinforcing a medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive and showed increasing divergence, with the histogram rising strongly post-breakout. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 for several candles, indicating short-term exhaustion and possible near-term pullback. However, the strong volume suggests buying pressure may hold.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 1.672–1.786 swing include 38.2% at 1.723, 50% at 1.737, and 61.8% at 1.747. The current price sits just below the 1.826 swing high, aligning with the 1.818–1.824 61.8% extension of the 1.78–1.824 move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands exhibited a tight contraction in the early hours of 2025-09-17, followed by a strong expansion post-breakout. Price has moved to the upper band at multiple points, most recently at 1.825 on 08:45 ET, suggesting high volatility and potential reversal risk.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged following the 1.80–1.81 breakout, with the highest 15-minute volume spike reaching $4.5 million at 08:45 ET. Turnover was consistent with volume spikes, suggesting no major price-turnover divergence. The 1.672–1.694 consolidation period saw relatively lower volume, indicating a buildup of buying pressure before the breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position upon price crossing above the upper Bollinger Band, confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle and RSI crossing above 60. The target would be the next 61.8% Fibonacci extension, with a stop-loss just below the 50% retracement level. This approach leverages volatility expansion, strong candlestick confirmation, and momentum signals. If applied to this 24-hour window, the 08:45 ET candle would have triggered a long entry with a stop below 1.804, aligning well with subsequent price action.