CBOT Soybean Futures Under Pressure: Harvest Season and Waning Export Demand Signal Short-Term Bearish Outlook

The U.S. soybean market is facing a confluence of bearish pressures as the 2025/26 harvest season looms and export demand weakens amid geopolitical tensions. For investors, the combination of seasonal supply dynamics and structural trade challenges creates a compelling case for caution in soybean-related assets.

Bearish Fundamentals: Harvest Season and Oversupply Risks

The U.S. soybean harvest, projected to reach 4.3 billion bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year, is set to exacerbate near-term oversupply concerns, according to the USDA ERS outlook. The USDA's September 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report noted a marginal decline in yield expectations to 53.5 bushels per acre, coupled with a slight increase in harvested acres by 0.2 million, as detailed in the September WASDE report. While production remains robust, the timing of the harvest-coinciding with a market already grappling with weak export demand-threatens to drive prices lower. Historical patterns suggest that increased supply during periods of stagnant demand often leads to sharp price corrections, a dynamic currently playing out in the CBOT soybean futures market, as shown on the soybean price chart.

Export Demand in Freefall: China's Tariff War and Brazil's Dominance

The most critical headwind for U.S. soybean exports is the ongoing trade standoff with China, the world's largest buyer. Beijing's 34% effective tariff on U.S. soybeans-combining a 20% retaliatory duty, 3% Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)-has rendered U.S. soybeans uncompetitive in the Chinese market. From January to August 2025, U.S. soybean shipments to China totaled just 218 million bushels, accounting for 29% of total exports during the period, a stark decline from the 51% recorded in the same period in 2024, according to a Purdue report.

Meanwhile, Brazil has capitalized on this vacuum, setting a record for soybean exports to China with 2.474 billion bushels from January to August 2025, the Purdue report notes. Brazil's competitive advantage stems from its lower production costs, favorable trade policies, and a projected expansion of planted area for the 2025/26 crop. This shift in trade dynamics has left U.S. soybean producers with an "export gap," as no new crop export orders from China currently exist for the 2025/26 marketing year.

Implications for Investors: A Risk-Managed Approach

For investors, the short-term outlook for CBOT soybean futures is deeply bearish. The interplay of seasonal supply surges, geopolitical trade barriers, and Brazil's market dominance has created a perfect storm of downward pressure on prices. Futures prices have already fallen toward $10 per bushel, the lowest level since mid-August 2025, and further declines are likely as the harvest progresses.

Moreover, U.S. farmers face compounding challenges, including elevated input costs for fertilizer, seeds, and chemicals, which could force distress sales of inventory at fire-sale prices. This scenario would further depress futures markets and exacerbate margin pressures for producers.

Investors in soybean-related assets-whether futures contracts, agricultural equities, or commodity ETFs-should adopt a risk-managed approach. Short-term hedging strategies, such as bearish options or short positions, may be warranted, but exposure should be limited given the volatility of the sector. Long-term investors, however, may find value in waiting for trade tensions to ease or for China to re-enter the market, which could catalyze a rebound in prices.

Conclusion

The CBOT soybean market is at a critical juncture, with bearish fundamentals dominating the near-term outlook. Seasonal supply increases, waning export demand, and geopolitical trade tensions have created a fragile environment for U.S. producers and investors alike. While the long-term fundamentals for global soybean demand remain intact, the immediate risks are pronounced. A cautious, well-hedged strategy is essential for navigating this challenging landscape.