CBO’s Swagel says at NABE conference he is waiting for clarity on Trump administration tariff decisions, is tracking policy plans, and will update projections when available

CBO’s Swagel says at NABE conference he is waiting for clarity on Trump administration tariff decisions, is tracking policy plans, and will update projections when available

CBO Director Highlights Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Implications

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Phillip Swagel emphasized at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) conference that ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's tariff policies remains a critical factor in economic forecasting. Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box in September 2025, Swagel noted that the CBO's analysis indicates Trump's tariffs have contributed to higher inflation than initially projected, despite broader economic weakening since January 2025.

Swagel outlined the dual impact of the tariffs: while they have injected $3.3 trillion in revenue into federal coffers over the next decade, they also incur $700 billion in averted debt costs, potentially reducing the U.S. budget deficit by $4 trillion. However, he cautioned that the long-term benefits remain contingent on the Supreme Court's upcoming review of the legality of these tariffs. The court is set to hear arguments in November 2025, following lower court rulings that challenged the administration's authority to impose the levies.

The CBO's September 2025 report underscores that policy uncertainty linked to trade measures could dampen investment through 2027, with effects dissipating as clarity emerges. Swagel reiterated that his office is closely monitoring evolving policy decisions and will revise projections as new information becomes available.

While Wall Street analysts have largely anticipated tariff-driven inflationary pressures without clear evidence, the CBO's assessment highlights a nuanced view: tariffs may bolster short-term fiscal balances but introduce volatility in growth and consumer prices. As the Supreme Court's decision looms, markets and policymakers alike await resolution on whether these policies will persist or face judicial constraints.

Congressional Budget Office. (2025).
CNBC. (2025, September 15).

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