Cathie Wood Bets Big on AI, Biotech, and a Productivity Boom – Is This the Start of the Next Bull Run?

The investing world is buzzing over Cathie Wood’s latest moves. The CEO of ARK Invest, known for her bold calls on disruptive technologies, has doubled down on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Shopify (SHOP), and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) in recent weeks. But what’s fueling her confidence? And why are these picks sparking both enthusiasm and skepticism? Let’s dive into the data.

The Catalyst: Exiting the “Stealth Recession”

Wood’s bets are rooted in her controversial thesis that the U.S. economy is finally shaking off a three-year “stealth recession” triggered by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. In a March 2025 note, she argued that sectors like housing and autos have already bottomed out, and the next phase will be driven by productivity gains in AI, robotics, and biotech.

The Data:
- ARK’s flagship Innovation ETF (ARKK) trades at just 13.3% of its 2021 valuation premium to the S&P 500, signaling deep discounts.
- Wood’s March 2025 report projected Bitcoin could hit $1.5 million by 2030, though critics argue this is overly optimistic.

The Bets: AMD, Shopify, and the Gene-Editing Gamble

Let’s break down Wood’s three key purchases:

1. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): The AI Chip Play

Wood added to her AMD stake despite a $800M hit from China’s ban on its MI308X processor. Analysts still see 30% revenue growth in 2025, driven by AI and data center demand. AMD’s stock trades at 22x 2025 earnings estimates, a bargain compared to its growth trajectory.

The Rationale:
- “AMD’s AI chip dominance is unshaken,” says ARK’s report. “Even with China’s restrictions, data center and cloud demand are roaring back.”

2. Shopify (SHOP): Betting on E-Commerce Resilience

Shopify’s Q1 2025 results are expected to show 25% revenue growth, despite headwinds from slowing consumer spending. Wood sees its white-label platform as a $1 trillion transaction engine (half of which occurred in just two years).

The Skepticism:
- Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their price target, citing “weakening retail traffic.”

3. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA): Gene Editing’s Next Big Thing

Wood’s play here is pure contrarian: NTLA’s stock is down 81% since 2021, but Wolfe Research just upgraded it to “Outperform”, citing its $200M enterprise value (vs. an $850M market cap) and rapid enrollment in a Phase 3 CRISPR trial.

The Risk:
- “Gene editing is still a moonshot,” warns one biotech analyst. “Clinical failures could crush this stock.”

The Contrarian Case: Why Wood Could Be Right

Wood’s thesis hinges on two pillars: valuation discounts and policy tailwinds.

1. The “Deep Value” Opportunity

• ARKK’s adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple has collapsed from 278% above the S&P 500 in 2021 to just 13.3% today.
• “This is the cheapest we’ve seen innovation stocks since the dot-com crash,” Wood told investors in April.

2. The Policy Catalyst

Wood believes President Trump’s tariff policies are forcing trade negotiations that could slash non-tariff barriers by 2026. This, combined with potential Fed rate cuts, could supercharge growth in tech and biotech.

The Skeptics’ Counterargument

Not everyone buys Wood’s optimism. Take Tesla (TSLA):

• Wood’s $2,600 target for Tesla by 2030 faces mockery. Analysts cite shrinking margins (8% vs. 16% in 2021) and eroding EV market share.

The Bottom Line:
Wood’s bets are high-risk, high-reward. If AI adoption and biotech breakthroughs accelerate, her picks could soar. But if inflation stays sticky or trade wars intensify, investors might find themselves holding the bag.

Conclusion: A Gamble Worth Taking?

Cathie Wood’s strategy is a classic “bargain hunting” play in a cyclical market. Her focus on AMD’s AI chips, Shopify’s e-commerce resilience, and Intellia’s gene-editing potential aligns with sectors that could lead the next bull run—if her recession-exit thesis holds.

Actionable Takeaway:
- Buyers: Consider small positions in ARKK or individual stocks like AMD or NTLA, but set strict stop-losses.
- Sellers: Avoid Tesla and Bitcoin unless you’re a long-term risk-taker.

As Wood herself might say: “Don’t wait for perfect clarity – the best opportunities vanish when everyone finally agrees!”

Data as of April 2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results.