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On September 24, 2025,
(CAT) traded with a volume of $1.31 billion, a 28.78% decline from the previous day. The stock closed down 0.31%, ranking 62nd in trading activity across the market. Reduced liquidity and cautious positioning appeared to weigh on the name, with institutional activity showing limited follow-through from recent momentum.Analysts noted mixed signals in earnings commentary from key equipment suppliers, which contributed to sector-wide volatility. Caterpillar's exposure to construction and energy sectors remains under pressure amid fluctuating commodity prices and regulatory uncertainties. However, long-term demand fundamentals for heavy machinery remain intact, with order backlogs still above pre-pandemic levels.
To build an accurate back-test I’ll need to pin down a few practical details: 1. Universe • All U.S. listed common stocks (NYSE + NASDAQ + AMEX) – or a narrower list (e.g., S&P 1500 constituents)? 2. Ranking metric • Raw dollar trading volume, raw share volume, or average volume over some look-back (e.g., 20-day average)? 3. Execution prices • Buy at the same day’s close and hold to the next day’s close (close-to-close), or buy next day’s open and exit at that day’s close (open-to-close)? 4. Transaction costs / slippage • Should we include a round-trip cost assumption (e.g., 2 bp each side) or ignore trading frictions? 5. Portfolio construction • Equal-weight the 500 names each day? 6. Benchmark (if any) • Compare against SPY, or simply report standalone returns?

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