Carvana Soars on Wedbush Upgrade: Can $400 Target Be Reached?

Summary
• Carvana (CVNA) surges 1.97% intraday to $358.165, hitting a 52-week high of $364.2
• Wedbush upgrades CVNA to Outperform with a $400 price target, citing outperformance in used vehicle sales
• Q3 results show record revenue of $5.65B but EPS miss triggers mixed market reaction

Carvana’s stock is surging amid a bold upgrade from Wedbush Securities, which now sees the online auto retailer as a top performer in the used vehicle market. The stock’s intraday high of $364.2 reflects renewed investor confidence, driven by analyst optimism about Carvana’s growth trajectory. With Wedbush projecting 23%+ CAGR in unit sales through 2033, the stock’s 1.97% gain underscores a pivotal moment in its post-Q3 recovery.

Wedbush's Bold Upgrade Ignites CVNA Rally
Wedbush’s upgrade of Carvana to Outperform, coupled with a $400 price target, has catalyzed a sharp intraday rally. The firm argues the stock’s 22x 2027 EBITDA multiple is undemanding given Carvana’s projected outperformance over CarMax in used unit volumes by 2026. Analyst Scott Devitt highlighted Carvana’s margin expansion—adjusted EBITDA margins climbing to 10.3% in Q3—and its strategic edge in automation and same-day delivery. The upgrade follows a 13% pullback, which Wedbush deems excessive, positioning the stock as a compelling buy for investors betting on its 30%+ upside.

Auto Dealers Sector Gains Momentum as Carvana Outperforms Rivals
The Auto Dealers sector is showing mixed momentum, with CarMax (KMX) rising 2.74% intraday. Carvana’s rally, however, reflects its unique positioning as a digital-first disruptor. Wedbush notes Carvana is on track to surpass CarMax in quarterly used unit volumes six months ahead of schedule, with 187,000 units projected for Q4 2026 versus CarMax’s 170,000. This gap underscores Carvana’s execution edge, driven by its vertically integrated model and data-driven operations.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls for CVNA’s Bullish Run
• 200-day MA: 303.56 (below) | RSI: 63.67 (neutral) | MACD: -3.49 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $350.99 (near current price) | Support: $308.88–$310.32

Carvana’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $364.2, with RSI in neutral territory and MACD showing divergence. Key resistance lies at $364.2, while support is anchored by the 30-day support band ($308.88–$310.32).

Top Options Picks:
• CVNA20251205C360 (Call): Strike $360, Expiry 12/5, IV 58.30%, Leverage 28.60%, Delta 0.488, Theta -1.335, Gamma 0.0116, Turnover 246,980
- High liquidity and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $376.07).
• CVNA20251205C367.5 (Call): Strike $367.5, Expiry 12/5, IV 55.74%, Leverage 40.37%, Delta 0.398, Theta -1.169, Gamma 0.0117, Turnover 267,753
- Strong gamma and turnover suggest responsiveness to price swings, aligning with Carvana’s volatility.

Aggressive bulls should consider CVNA20251205C360 into a break above $364.2. If the 52-week high holds, CVNA20251205C367.5 offers leveraged exposure to a potential $400 run.

Backtest Carvana Stock Performance
Here is the event-driven back-test you requested. I defined a “2 % intraday surge” as a daily close-to-close return ≥ +2 % (intraday high/low data are not available via current data interface, so the close-to-close metric is the closest proxy). Back-test horizon was set to 2022-01-01 through 2025-11-26, exactly matching “2022 to now”. All prices use daily close and the benchmark is CVNA’s own buy-and-hold performance over the same period.Key take-aways (see interactive panel below for full details):• 304 surge events were identified. • Average excess return vs. benchmark is modest: after 10 trading days, +0.60 pp (4.06 % vs. 3.46 %); after 30 trading days, +0.40 pp (14.38 % vs. 13.98 %). • Win rate drifts from ~49 % (1-day) to ~59 % (30-day). • None of the horizons up to 30 trading days reached conventional statistical significance, suggesting that ≥2 % daily jumps in CVNA have not reliably signaled outsized follow-through. • Dispersion of outcomes is high; risk-adjusted edge appears limited.Next steps (optional):1. Tighten or loosen the surge threshold (e.g., +3 % or +5 %) to test sensitivity. 2. Examine intraday data (if available) for true “high-to-close” moves. 3. Layer in risk controls (stop-loss / take-profit) to test tradable strategies.Feel free to explore the interactive results below.(If the module does not display automatically, please refresh or expand the panel.)

Carvana’s $400 Target in Sight: Act Now on Bullish Momentum
Carvana’s rally is underpinned by Wedbush’s conviction in its growth story and technicals favoring a continuation. With the stock near its 52-week high and options like CVNA20251205C360 offering 28.6% leverage, the path to $400 appears viable. Sector leader CarMax (KMX) is rising 2.74%, but Carvana’s digital edge and margin discipline position it as the sector’s standout. Watch for a breakout above $364.2—failure to hold this level could trigger a retest of $310.32 support. For now, aggressive bulls should allocate to high-leverage calls as the stock challenges its all-time high.