Carvana Rises 4.74% To $307.91 Amid Technical Support At $290

Carvana (CVNA) concluded the most recent session with a 4.74% gain, marking its second consecutive day of positive performance and bringing its two-day advance to 6.16%, closing at $307.91. This recovery occurred against a backdrop of elevated volatility observed over the preceding month.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals significant candlestick patterns. The session ending June 13th formed a pronounced Bearish Marubozu on high volume, signaling strong selling pressure following the breakdown from the $318-$320 support zone. However, the subsequent two sessions (June 17th and 18th) established a Bullish Harami pattern, closing near their highs. This suggests waning downward momentum and potential near-term support near the $290 level, aligning with the psychological $300 threshold that now transitions to resistance. The $290-$295 area and the $318-$320 zone stand as crucial immediate support and resistance levels, respectively.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day Moving Average (approximately $208 based on calculated trajectory) maintains a steep positive slope above both the 100-day (~$195) and 200-day Moving Averages (~$182), confirming the primary long-term uptrend remains intact. However, the sharp pullback from the June high near $351 caused the price to breach the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) decisively. The recent bounce occurred near the rapidly rising 50-day MA, which now acts as dynamic support. While the price remains above all key long-term averages, the breach below shorter-term EMAs suggests potential near-term consolidation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily timeframe recently triggered a bearish crossover below the signal line, exiting overbought territory. The histogram, while still negative, showed diminishing downward momentum during the last two sessions' rise. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator presents a mixed picture: the J-curve (currently near 82) is re-entering overbought territory quickly after dipping, while the slower %K and %D lines exhibit less conviction. This divergence may hint at underlying buying interest emerging, but the MACD's bearish crossover tempers outright bullishness. A decisive MACD reversal above its signal line would strengthen the recovery case.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility remains elevated, as indicated by the expanded Bollinger Bands following the late-May/early-June rally and the subsequent sharp decline. Price recently touched the lower band during the June 13th selloff before rebounding. The bands have begun to contract slightly over the last three sessions, often preceding a more decisive directional move. The current price near $308 positions it between the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) midline (~$295 estimated) and the upper band (~$330 estimated), suggesting a neutral-to-bullish near-term bias, but reliant on overcoming the $310-$315 resistance cluster.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged dramatically during the major down day on June 13th and the preceding significant drop on June 12th, confirming bearish conviction during the breakdown. The subsequent rebound days on June 17th and 18th saw notably lower volume compared to the preceding down days. This lack of robust volume confirmation on the bounce raises questions about the sustainability of the nascent recovery without broader participation. Volume support is critical for any move to reclaim resistance levels, particularly around $318-$320.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The daily RSI has cooled considerably from its highly overbought peak above 80 in early June. It registered an oversold signal near 35 during the June 13th low but has since recovered to approximately 62. This places the RSI comfortably in neutral territory (between 30 and 70), offering no immediate overbought or oversold warnings. The trajectory, however, reflects the price rebound, suggesting recovering momentum. Continued upside would need to be monitored for potential approach towards the 70 threshold, which could signal renewed overbought conditions.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major upswing from the March low (~$152.90) to the June peak (~$351.43) provides key levels. The retracement found buyers near the prominent 38.2% retracement level (approximately $290), aligning strongly with the observed price action low and candlestick support signals. This successful hold of the 38.2% level is technically encouraging. Resistance is now anticipated at the 23.6% retracement near $315-$318, coinciding with prior price congestion and the psychologically important $320 level breached during the decline. Reclaiming the $318-$320 zone would target the 0% retracement and recent highs, while a failure below $290 could target the 50% retracement near $252.
Concluding Assessment
Confluence is evident around the $290-$295 support zone, validated by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, bullish candlestick reversal signals (Bullish Harami), the rising 50-day Moving Average, and oversold RSI conditions at the recent low. This technical foundation supports the observed two-day recovery bounce. However, meaningful technical headwinds exist near $315-$320 resistance. The bearish MACD crossover and the significant volume expansion on down days compared to the lighter volume recovery days inject caution. While the longer-term trend remains structurally bullish, the short-term trend requires decisive price action above $320 on increasing volume to signal a resumption of the primary uptrend. Failure to overcome this resistance, especially if accompanied by renewed high-volume selling, would heighten the risk of consolidation extending towards the $252-$260 (50% Fib) support area. The tightening Bollinger Bands suggest a resolution of this directional indecision may be imminent.