Carvana Rises 3.72% in Two Days But Faces $380 Resistance Amid Mixed Signals

Carvana (CVNA) concluded the most recent session with a minimal gain of 0.03%, closing at $378.16. This marks its second consecutive day of gains, contributing to a 3.72% rise over the past two trading days, indicating tentative near-term strength amidst broader volatility observed in the dataset.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show small-bodied candles near current levels, indicating indecision after a two-day rebound. A clear resistance zone forms around $380-$382, reinforced by multiple failed breakout attempts (e.g., 2025-09-10 high $381.89, 2025-09-09 high $376.19). Support is evident near $365-$368 (2025-09-16 low $359.38, 2025-09-15 low $360.56), aligning with the 50-day moving average. The consolidation between these levels suggests traders are awaiting a catalyst.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (~$356) crossed above the 200-day MA (~$311) in late August 2025, confirming a bullish long-term Golden Cross signal. Price currently trades above all key MAs (50-day, 100-day ~$338, 200-day), signaling a primary uptrend. However, its proximity to the 50-day MA suggests it acts as dynamic support. The rising slope of all three averages supports the underlying bullish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows the signal line has recently crossed below the MACD line, indicating weakening short-term momentum, though both remain above the zero line implying the uptrend isn't negated. KDJ (9,3,3) presents a mixed picture: J-line is descending from overbought territory (>80 around 2025-09-11) but has flattened near 60, while K and D lines remain elevated above 50. This suggests the recent pullback may be losing steam but doesn't yet confirm renewed strength.
Bollinger Bands
Significant band contraction occurred in mid-September (e.g., 2025-09-16), preceding the recent upside breakout where price moved towards the upper band (~$394). Current price sits near the middle band (~$375), reflecting stabilization after the breakout. Band expansion persists, signaling ongoing elevated volatility but confirming the breakout direction remains valid as price holds above the breakout area.
Volume-Price Relationship
The powerful 16.96% surge on 2025-07-31 (~$390.17 close) saw extremely heavy volume (10.88M shares), marking a major accumulation point and long-term resistance level. Recent gains, like the 3.69% rise on 2025-09-17, saw elevated volume (3.49M shares), lending credence to the move. However, the minor gain on the latest session saw volume decline (3.88M vs. previous day), suggesting conviction behind further immediate upside may be waning near resistance. Overall, volume confirms major upside moves but flags caution at current highs.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (~63) resides comfortably between overbought (>70) and oversold (<30) thresholds. It retreated from near 70 in early September 2025 but has stabilized well above the neutral 50 line during recent consolidation. This reflects positive underlying momentum without immediate overheating concerns. However, divergences with price during prior minor pullbacks warrant caution.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the major rally from the June 2024 low (~$166 - July 2025 high ~$413.34) is key. The 38.2% retracement lies around $320, which acted as strong support during the August 2025 pullback. The critical 61.8% retracement level is near $280, a significant floor. Extensions above the prior high highlight key targets: the 161.8% level projects near $595 (a long-term goal). Notably, the $380-$390 resistance zone aligns with the 100% retracement level ($413.34 represents the prior peak to retrace against), confirming a major technical barrier.
Confluence and Divergences
Significant confluence exists around the $380-$390 resistance zone identified by: 1) Multiple prior price peaks (candlestick highs), 2) The 100% Fibonacci retracement level, and 3) Declining volume on recent approaches. Bullish confluence is seen with price firmly above rising long-term MAs and the RSI holding above 50. A key divergence is observed: the recent price peak on 2025-09-10 ($381.89) was accompanied by a lower MACD peak compared to August 2025, signaling weakening upside momentum near resistance.
Overall Probabilistic Outlook
Carvana remains in a primary uptrend, supported by moving averages, volume confirmation on large up days, and healthy RSI levels. However, near-term price action shows consolidation and loss of momentum near the critical $380-$390 resistance zone, signaled by divergent MACD, mixed KDJ readings, and declining volume on recent pushes. The probability favors a period of choppy trading or minor pullback to test support (potentially near $365-$368 or the rising 50DMA) before any sustainable move above $390 can occur. A decisive high-volume breakout above $390 would significantly increase the probability of targeting the $413.34 prior high next.