Carvana Rises 0.14% Amid Volatility As Resistance Holds At $342-$345

Carvana (CVNA) recorded a modest 0.14% gain in the most recent session, closing at $339.07 after trading between $331.50 and $341.46. Below is a comprehensive technical analysis using the specified framework.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal significant volatility. The August 18th session formed a robust bullish candle closing at $359.51, followed by a sharp bearish candle on August 19th ($344.24 close). This two-day reversal pattern suggests exhaustion near $360 resistance. The August 20th session printed a long upper wick (high $341.54, close $338.61), indicating rejection at the $342–$345 resistance zone, now a critical barrier. Support is established near $331–$332, aligning with the August 21st low, while resistance remains at $342–$345. A decisive close above $345 would signal bullish continuation.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approximately $335) is converging with the 100-day and 200-day averages (both near $280–$290), reflecting underlying bullish momentum. The current price trading above all three averages confirms a long-term uptrend. However, the 50-day MA is flattening after the recent pullback from July’s peak ($413), suggesting near-term consolidation. Sustained trading above the 50-day MA ($335) maintains short-term bullish bias, while a break below could trigger a test of the 100-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bearish crossover below the signal line in early August, aligning with the price correction. While the MACD histogram remains negative, its trajectory is flattening, hinting at weakening downward momentum. KDJ indicators are recovering from oversold territory: The %K line recently crossed above %D near 20, suggesting improving short-term momentum. However, KDJ values remain below 50, indicating intermediate bearish pressure. Confluence exists near oversold levels, but neither oscillator yet confirms a decisive reversal signal.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day) narrowed significantly during the August consolidation, reflecting reduced volatility. The August 21st close ($339.07) sits near the middle band ($338), indicating neutral price positioning. The upper band ($365) and lower band ($315) define the next volatility-driven targets. A band expansion concurrent with a breakout above $342 resistance would validate bullish momentum, while contraction suggests continued range-bound action.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged during key trend shifts: the July 31st 16.96% rally to $390.17 occurred on 10.9M shares (YTD high), confirming institutional accumulation. The subsequent August decline saw elevated volume on down days (e.g., August 1st: -5.74% on 5.1M shares), signaling distribution. Recent sessions show mixed volume signals: the August 18th rally had substantial volume (3.6M), but the August 21st bounce was on reduced volume (1.6M), questioning sustainability. Volume divergence here warrants caution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI recovered from oversold conditions (hitting 30 in early August) to current neutral levels near 50. This relief rally alleviated extreme bearish pressure but lacks overbought confirmation. The absence of RSI divergence during recent lows suggests no underlying strength anomaly. An RSI move above 55 would support bullish momentum, while failure to hold above 45 may signal renewal of selling pressure.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the swing high ($413.34 on July 31st) and swing low ($330 on August 21st) yields key levels: 23.6% retracement at $350, 38.2% at $361.80, and 50% at $371.70. Price stalled near the 23.6% level during the August 19th–20th recovery, reinforcing $350 as tactical resistance. This zone aligns with the candlestick resistance cluster ($342–$345) and the 20-day Bollinger Band upper boundary, creating a high-probability resistance confluence. A close above $351 would target $362 next.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of resistance is observed at $342–$350, validated by candlestick rejection, Fibonacci retracement, and the upper Bollinger Band. Support confluence exists at $330–$335, bolstered by the 50-day MA and recent price lows. Notable bearish divergence appears in volume patterns during the recent bounce, contrasting with neutral-bullish signals from KDJ and MACD stabilization. The lack of RSI divergence tempers reversal expectations. A decisive break above $350 with expanding volume would signal trend resumption, while failure below $330 risks a deeper correction toward $315 (Bollinger lower band) or $300 (psychological level).