Carvana Plunges 12.72% In Two Days As Technicals Signal Bearish Momentum

Carvana (CVNA) concluded the most recent session with a 6.87% decline to $297.03, marking its second consecutive down day with a cumulative 12.72% loss, underscoring heightened selling pressure in the short term.
Candlestick Theory
The recent two-day plunge formed consecutive long bearish candles, indicating strong downward momentum. June 12 saw a high-to-low range of $337.53–$317.75 with a close near the session low ($318.95), followed by June 13 printing a wider range ($313–$295.39) and closing near its low ($297.03). This pattern highlights the $300 psychological level as immediate support, while resistance is observed at $313 (June 13’s high). A breach below $295 may extend declines toward the $288–$285 zone, where consolidation occurred in late May.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (estimated ~$320) was breached decisively during the two-day selloff, signaling short-term bearish momentum. However, the 100-day SMA (~$260) and 200-day SMA (~$200) maintain upward slopes with the price trading above both, suggesting the primary uptrend remains intact. The 50-day/100-day potential death cross warrants monitoring for medium-term trend deterioration.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bearish crossover with the histogram expanding negatively, confirming accelerating downward momentum. Meanwhile, KDJ readings are oversold, with the last session’s Stochastic RSV value at 2.93—the lowest in the 9-day period—potentially flagging exhaustion. The divergence between MACD’s bearish bias and KDJ’s oversold extremes suggests near-term volatility.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded markedly during the selloff, reflecting rising volatility. The price is testing the lower band (~$295–$297), typically a contrarian support zone. A failure to hold here could trigger further downside toward $285, while a mean-reversion bounce would target the 20-day SMA (middle band) near $320.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 39% to 6.6 million shares on June 13, validating the breakdown. This follows elevated volume of 4.74 million shares on June 12, confirming distribution. Sustained high volume below $300 would indicate persistent selling pressure, while a low-volume rebound may lack conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (estimated ~28) entered oversold territory, approaching levels last seen during the May pullback. While this warns of a potential technical bounce, oversold conditions may persist in strong downtrends. RSI divergence will be critical to monitor for reversal signals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $100.05 (June 17, 2024) and high of $347.31 (June 4, 2025), key retracement levels are $288.95 (23.6%), $252.86 (38.2%), and $223.68 (50%). The current price at $297.03 hovers just above the 23.6% level. A sustained break below $288.95 would open the 38.2% retracement ($252.86) as the next downside target.
Confluence and Divergences: Multiple indicators align at the $288–$295 support zone, combining the 23.6% Fibonacci level, Bollinger lower band, and psychological $300 barrier. However, the volume-MACD downtrend divergence against oversold KDJ/RSI readings creates tension between bearish momentum and potential exhaustion. While long-term trend signals remain bullish, the breach of the 50-day SMA with elevated volume leans near-term bearish. A decisive close below $288.95 would strengthen downside objectives, whereas a recovery above $313 could invalidate immediate bearish pressures.