Carvana Drops 2.94% to $306.48 Extending Losses to 5.11% in Two Days

Carvana (CVNA) experienced a 2.94% decline to $306.48 in the latest session, marking its second consecutive down day with a cumulative 5.11% loss. This pullback occurs after a multi-month uptrend, setting the context for our technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show bearish momentum, with the June 26 candle closing near its low ($305.08 low vs. $306.48 close) following a failed recovery attempt on June 24 (small bullish candle with upper wick). Key resistance is established at $326–$328 (June 25 high and June 20 peak), while immediate support rests at $305. A breakdown below $305 opens the path to the critical $290–$292 swing low from June 18.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approximated near $300) remains pivotal support beneath current prices. The 100-day MA (est. $260) and 200-day MA (est. $220) slope upward, confirming the longer-term uptrend. However, the breach below the 20-day MA and the potential death cross (short-term MAs crossing below intermediate MAs) suggest near-term bearish pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bearish crossover with the signal line, aligning with the recent correction. KDJ’s %K line (23) and %D line (32) indicate oversold territory, hinting at potential exhaustion in selling momentum. Divergence is noted as price made a lower low on June 26, while KDJ registered a higher low—a tentative reversal signal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the June sell-off, with prices touching the lower Bollinger Band (est. $300–$302). The close below this band on June 26 signals extreme downside momentum. A mean-reversion bounce toward the 20-day midline ($318–$320) is plausible if the band holds as support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Down days recently featured higher volume (June 26: 3.65M shares vs. June 25: 1.98M), confirming bearish conviction. However, the June 20 rally occurred on substantial volume (5.28M), indicating strong accumulation near $290–$300. Sustained closes below this zone with elevated volume would invalidate that support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approx. 38) retreated from overbought territory (>70) in early June but hasn’t yet reached oversold (<30). This suggests room for further downside, though the KDJ’s oversold reading creates a divergence. RSI’s failure to breach 30 during the June 18–26 decline may indicate underlying strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing high of $342.65 (June 11) and swing low of $290.90 (June 18), the 61.8% retracement at $323 was breached decisively. Current prices trade below the 78.6% level ($310), targeting the 100% extension at $290. The 50% retracement ($316.80) now acts as resistance, reinforced by the June 24 high of $328.20.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence exists around $290–$295, where the 100% Fibonacci level, June 18 swing low, and volume-based support converge. Bearish confirmation comes from MACD’s downtick, volume-supported declines, and the RSI’s neutral positioning. Divergences emerge via KDJ’s oversold signal against price and RSI, suggesting potential near-term consolidation or reversal. Should $290 fail, the 200-day MA near $220 becomes the next major support.