Carvana Dips 0.86% Amid Technical Bearish Signals Below 50-Day MA

Carvana (CVNA) concluded the most recent session at $333.59, reflecting a decline of 0.86%. The technical analysis below examines key indicators across multiple frameworks to assess the stock's current positioning and potential trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns highlight indecision following a correction. The July 30 session printed a long lower wick (low: $328.58, close: $333.59), signaling aggressive buying near $328–$329 support. This level now serves as immediate short-term support after rejecting further downside. Resistance emerges at $340–$341, coinciding with the July 29–30 highs and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Consecutive long wicks near $328–$329 suggest potential accumulation, though sustained trading below $340 maintains near-term bearish control.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration remains bullishly aligned with the 50-day MA (≈$338) above the 100-day (≈$320) and 200-day MA (≈$250). Price action, however, shows short-term deterioration as the current close ($333.59) dips below the 50-day MA for the first time in eight weeks. Failure to reclaim the 50-day MA could signal further consolidation. The primary uptrend remains intact, supported by the price holding well above the rising 200-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram resides in negative territory with a sustained bearish crossover (signal line above MACD), reflecting weakening momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows K-line (32.3) and D-line convergence near oversold thresholds (<30), though not yet triggering an oversold signal. This alignment suggests continued downside momentum but flags potential exhaustion if the $328 support holds. No directional divergence is observed between MACD and KDJ, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands exhibit moderate contraction, with the 20-day band width narrowing by 15% over the past week. Price hovers near the lower band ($328), typically indicating oversold conditions. The current position outside the bands (14% below the middle band) coupled with volatility compression may foreshadow a volatility expansion. A move back inside the bands could catalyze a technical rebound toward the $340–$343 mid-band resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns reveal distribution during the July decline, with the notable down day on July 24 (-4.93%) occurring on 20% above-average volume. Conversely, recent bounces (e.g., July 25-26) lacked commensurate volume conviction. The July 30 session’s neutral volume during a lower close indicates limited panic selling but fails to confirm accumulation. Sustained upside requires volume expansion above the 3.5M-share average to validate recovery attempts.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 37.6, hovering near neutral territory but down from 55 two weeks prior. While approaching oversold thresholds (<30), the absence of extreme readings suggests room for additional downside. Caution is warranted as RSI can remain subdued during strong trends; a reversal above 45 would be needed to signal improving momentum. No bullish divergence is evident relative to recent price lows.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the rally from the June 27 low ($319.26) to the July 17 peak ($358.58) reveals key levels. The 23.6% retracement ($335.7) aligns with recent resistance, while the 38.2% level ($330.3) overlaps with intraday support. The deeper 50% retracement at $338.9 converges with the 50-day MA and Bollinger mid-band, creating a critical resistance confluence zone. Failure to breach $335.7 keeps the immediate bias bearish, targeting a retest of $319–$322.