Carvana (CVNA) Surges 3.77% on Bullish Momentum and S&P 500 Inclusion Hype

Summary
• Carvana unveils 2026 Daytona 500 paint scheme with Jimmie Johnson
• CVNA trades at $463.05, up 3.77% with intraday high of $465.28
• S&P 500 inclusion on December 22, 2025, fuels institutional optimism
• Sector leader Carmax (KMX) lags with -3.52% intraday decline

Carvana’s stock is surging on a confluence of strategic partnerships, S&P 500 inclusion speculation, and robust operational metrics. The company’s collaboration with NASCAR legend Jimmie Johnson and its inclusion in the S&P 500 index have ignited investor enthusiasm. Meanwhile, the auto dealership sector remains mixed, with Carmax underperforming as Carvana’s digital-first model gains traction.

S&P 500 Inclusion and Earnings Optimism Fuel CVNA's Rally
Carvana’s 3.77% intraday gain is driven by its impending inclusion in the S&P 500 on December 22, 2025, which is expected to attract passive index fund inflows. The company’s turnaround—marked by a 130% YTD rally, $2.6 billion cash reserves, and $7,685 gross profit per unit—has silenced skeptics. Analysts highlight its ADESA-integrated infrastructure and 12.4% adjusted EBITDA margin as catalysts. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.85 for 2025 earnings, though unchanged, aligns with institutional confidence in its operational efficiency.

Auto Dealership Sector Mixed as Carvana Outperforms
The auto dealership sector remains fragmented, with Carmax (KMX) down 3.52% as traditional models struggle against Carvana’s digital-first approach. Carvana’s acquisition of ADESA’s auction sites has created a hybrid physical-digital ecosystem, slashing logistics costs and boosting GPU. Meanwhile, peers like Lithia Motors (LAD) face pressure to digitize, while Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion solidifies its market leadership.

High-Leverage Call Options and ETFs Signal Aggressive Bullish Play
• 200-day average: 316.75 (well below current price)
• RSI: 78.42 (overbought)
• MACD: 32.21 (above signal line at 27.51)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $507.96 (near-term resistance)

Carvana’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $485 (52W high) and support at $360–$390. The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long CVNA ETF (CVNX) and YieldMax CVNA Option Income Strategy ETF (CVNY) offer leveraged exposure. For options, CVNA20251226C480 and CVNA20251226C475 stand out:

• CVNA20251226C480
- Strike: $480 | Expiration: 2025-12-26 | IV: 36.35% | Leverage: 90.37% | Delta: 0.3108 | Theta: -1.166 | Gamma: 0.01329 | Turnover: 1.88M
- IV (implied volatility): Indicates moderate volatility expectations
- Leverage: Amplifies returns if CVNA breaks $480
- Delta: Sensitive to price swings but not overexposed
- Theta: High time decay favors short-term holding
- Gamma: High sensitivity to price movement
- Payoff at 5% upside (486.15): $6.15 per contract
- Why it stands out: High leverage and liquidity make it ideal for a breakout above $480.

• CVNA20251226C475
- Strike: $475 | Expiration: 2025-12-26 | IV: 37.59% | Leverage: 65.46% | Delta: 0.3828 | Theta: -1.373 | Gamma: 0.01389 | Turnover: 284.88K
- IV: Slightly higher than average, reflecting market optimism
- Leverage: Moderate amplification for a safer play
- Delta: Balanced sensitivity to price changes
- Theta: High decay suits aggressive short-term trading
- Gamma: Strong responsiveness to price swings
- Payoff at 5% upside (486.15): $11.15 per contract
- Why it stands out: Offers a safer, high-reward setup if CVNA consolidates near $475 before a breakout.

Aggressive bulls should target CVNA20251226C480 into a break above $480, while CVNA20251226C475 provides a balanced entry for a pullback to $475.

Backtest Carvana Stock Performance
The backtest of CVNA's performance after a 4% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 49.90%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.68%, and the 30-Day win rate is 67.27%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 30.81% over 30 days, suggesting that CVNA can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

Carvana’s S&P 500 Inclusion and Strong Fundamentals Signal a High-Conviction Buy
Carvana’s rally is underpinned by structural advantages—ADESA integration, 12.4% EBITDA margins, and S&P 500 inclusion—which position it to outperform the struggling auto dealership sector. While the RSI suggests overbought conditions, the 200-day average at $316.75 and Bollinger Bands indicate a strong trend. Investors should monitor the $485 resistance level and the sector leader Carmax (KMX, -3.52%), which highlights Carvana’s relative strength. Watch for a breakout above $485 or a pullback to $475 for high-conviction entries.