Carvana (CVNA) Surges 3.05% Amid Analyst Upgrades and Sector Momentum – What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Carvana (CVNA) trades at $341.0, up 3.05% intraday on 2025-11-25
• Intraday range: $326.6 (low) to $341.74 (high), with 111,291 shares traded
• Wedbush upgrades CVNA to Outperform with $400 price target, while Q3 earnings optimism drives momentum

Carvana’s stock surged sharply in late trading, driven by a Wedbush Securities upgrade and renewed optimism around its growth trajectory. The rally comes amid mixed earnings reactions and sector-wide momentum in auto retail. With technical indicators and options activity pointing to bullish positioning, investors are weighing whether this is a sustainable breakout or a short-term rebound.

Wedbush Upgrade and Earnings Optimism Drive CVNA Higher
Carvana’s intraday rally was catalyzed by Wedbush Securities’ upgrade to Outperform, raising its price target to $400 from $380. The firm cited Carvana’s outperformance against CarMax in unit volume growth and its 22x 2027 earnings multiple as undervalued. Despite a Q3 earnings miss (EPS $1.03 vs. $1.29–$1.33), analysts highlighted record $5.65B revenue, 44% retail unit growth, and strategic wins like same-day delivery expansion. The upgrade capitalized on a 13% post-earnings selloff, with Wedbush arguing the pullback was overdone given Carvana’s margin expansion and automation-driven scalability.

Auto Retail Sector Gains Momentum as Carvana and CarMax Outperform
The auto retail sector saw mixed momentum, with Carvana (CVNA) rising 3.05% and CarMax (KMX) surging 6.82% intraday. Both stocks benefited from renewed confidence in used vehicle demand and digital transformation. Carvana’s vertical integration and same-day delivery model contrast with CarMax’s traditional dealership approach, but both face margin pressures. Analysts note that Carvana’s 23% CAGR unit sales forecast through 2033 could cement its leadership, though KMX’s recent 187,000 Q4 2026 unit guidance remains a key benchmark.

Options and ETF Strategies for CVNA’s Volatile Rally
• MACD: -6.36 (bullish divergence), RSI: 58.01 (neutral), 200D MA: $303.14 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: $327.06 (lower) to $354.15 (upper), 30D MA: $328.69 (support), 200D MA: $303.14 (key level)

Technical indicators suggest CVNA is in a short-term bullish trend, with RSI near neutral and MACD showing divergence. The 200D MA at $303.14 remains a critical support. For options, two contracts stand out:

• CVNA20251205C345 (Call, $345 strike, 2025-12-05 expiry):
- IV: 63.20% (high volatility), Leverage: 25.82%, Delta: 0.482, Theta: -1.23, Gamma: 0.0107, Turnover: 316,477
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($358.05), max(0, $358.05 - $345) = $13.05 per share. High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a continuation of the rally.
• CVNA20251205C355 (Call, $355 strike, 2025-12-05 expiry):
- IV: 61.14% (high volatility), Leverage: 38.47%, Delta: 0.375, Theta: -1.06, Gamma: 0.0105, Turnover: 152,274
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($358.05), max(0, $358.05 - $355) = $3.05 per share. Aggressive bulls may favor this for high leverage, though delta is lower. Both options benefit from high gamma and theta, indicating sensitivity to price moves and time decay.

Aggressive bulls should consider CVNA20251205C345 into a test of the $345 strike, while CVNA20251205C355 offers high-risk/reward potential if the rally extends beyond $355.

Backtest Carvana Stock Performance
Below is the completed event-study back-test for “CVNA +3 % intraday surge” since 2022. I have embedded an interactive module so you can review the detailed statistics and charts directly.How to read:• “Backtest Event” counts every trading day when CVNA’s close rose ≥ 3 % versus the previous close. • The table and graphs show cumulative excess returns and win-rate out to 30 trading days after each surge. • Day 7–10 displayed statistically significant out-performance; beyond that, significance faded.Feel free to open the module for full interactive analysis or let me know if you’d like to test different thresholds or holding windows.

Bullish Momentum Intact – Position for CVNA’s Next Move
Carvana’s rally appears driven by Wedbush’s bullish thesis and sector-wide optimism in used vehicle demand. The stock remains above its 200D MA and within Bollinger Bands, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. Investors should monitor the $344.19–$348.84 resistance zone and watch for a break above $354.15 (upper band) to confirm a breakout. With CarMax (KMX) surging 6.82% as a sector leader, CVNA’s ability to outperform peers will hinge on margin stability and execution of its automation strategy. Aggressive bulls may consider the CVNA20251205C345 call if the price holds above $340, while a breakdown below $327.06 could trigger a retest of the 200D MA.