Carvana (CVNA) Surges 12.06% in 10-Day Rally, Gaining 44.57% Amid Bullish Technical Signals

Carvana (CVNA) has surged 12.06% in the most recent session, extending a 10-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 44.57%. This aggressive rally suggests strong institutional or retail buying pressure, particularly in the context of the broader 1-year price action, which includes a 25.02% intraday swing in April 2025 and a subsequent consolidation phase before the recent breakout. The candlestick pattern over this period reveals a bullish flag formation, with the recent 10-day rally forming a steep ascending channel. Key support levels are evident at $350-370, where the stock previously consolidated in early 2025, while resistance aligns with the recent high of $456.97. The absence of long wicks in the last 10 sessions indicates strong conviction among buyers, though a potential exhaustion pattern may emerge if the $450 level fails to hold.

Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (calculated at approximately $330-340 based on 2025 data) is decisively above the 200-day average (~$250), confirming a strong bullish trend. The 10-day MA ($430-440) has crossed above both, forming a "golden triple crossover" that reinforces short-term momentum. However, the 100-day MA (~$345) is now converging with the 50-day line, suggesting potential tightening of the trend’s slope. A break below the 50-day MA would signal weakening momentum, though the current alignment of moving averages supports continuation of the uptrend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line (12-period) has surged above the signal line (26-period), with a histogram expanding positively, indicating accelerating momentum. The KDJ oscillator (stochastic RSI) shows %K and %D lines in overbought territory (above 80), with %K beginning to diverge slightly from price highs. While this hints at potential short-term exhaustion, the broader context of a multi-month uptrend suggests that any pullback may find support near the 200-day MA. A bearish crossover in the MACD or a stochastic "dead cross" would be critical bearish signals, though divergence in KDJ alone does not yet imply a reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded sharply in the last 10 sessions, with the upper band reaching $456.97 and the lower band at $397.21. The current price of $447.98 is within 0.5% of the upper band, indicating overbought conditions. The preceding period of narrow bands in late 2024-early 2025 (e.g., $220-240 range) acted as a consolidation phase before the breakout, suggesting the current expansion is part of a trend continuation. A retest of the lower band (~$400) could confirm the trend’s resilience.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, with the most recent session’s $6.2 billion volume (vs. $1.3 billion on 2025-12-05) validating the strength of the move. However, volume has not yet exceeded the April 2025 peak of $2.2 billion, which accompanied a 25% single-day spike. The current volume profile supports the price action but lacks a "volume climax" that would typically precede a reversal. A drop in volume during follow-through rallies would raise sustainability concerns.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is currently above 70, confirming overbought conditions. Historical data shows RSI frequently dipping below 30 in early 2025 during consolidation phases, but the recent rally has kept it above 50 since late November 2025. A sustained close below 60 would indicate weakening momentum, while a break above 80 would signal speculative frenzy. The RSI’s alignment with the price trend suggests continuation, though overbought readings should be monitored for divergences.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key retracement levels from the April 2025 low ($220) to the recent high ($456.97) include $380 (38.2%) and $330 (61.8%). The current price of $447.98 is near the 78.6% retracement level, which often acts as a dynamic resistance. A break above $456.97 would target the 127.2% extension (~$570), while a pullback to $380 would test the 38.2% level as potential support. Confluence between Fibonacci levels and moving averages (e.g., 50-day at $330-340) could create a strong pivot zone.
Conclusion
The confluence of bullish moving averages, expanding Bollinger Bands, and strong volume supports the continuation of the uptrend. However, overbought RSI and KDJ indicators suggest caution for near-term pullbacks. A critical watchpoint is the 50-day MA ($330-340) as dynamic support and the 200-day MA ($250) as a trend filter. Divergences in MACD or RSI, coupled with declining volume, would signal weakening momentum, while a break above $456.97 would validate the next leg higher.