Is Carvana (CVNA) a Buy Despite Volatility? Assessing Earnings Momentum and Analyst Optimism

The automotive retail sector has long been a volatile arena, but Carvana (CVNA) has emerged as a standout player in 2025, defying skepticism with explosive revenue growth and profitability gains. For contrarian investors, the question is whether this momentum justifies a strategic entry point despite the stock's inherent risks. A deep dive into Carvana's financial performance, analyst ratings, and valuation metrics reveals a compelling case for cautious optimism.

Earnings Momentum: A Catalyst for Growth

Carvana's third-quarter 2025 results underscore its operational resilience. The company sold 155,941 retail units-a 44% year-over-year increase-and generated $5.647 billion in revenue, up 55% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA surged to $637 million, while net income reached $263 million, reflecting disciplined cost management amid rising demand. These figures far exceed expectations and position Carvana to surpass its full-year 2025 guidance, with projected Adjusted EBITDA of $2.0–$2.2 billion.

Looking ahead, Carvana's long-term trajectory appears robust. Analysts estimate 2025 full-year revenue of $19.79 billion and earnings of $5.39 per share, representing 44.76% revenue growth and a staggering 238.99% earnings surge. By 2028, the company aims to achieve $33.2 billion in revenue and $2.2 billion in earnings, implying a 26.8% annual revenue growth rate. Such metrics suggest Carvana is not merely capitalizing on short-term trends but building a durable business model.

Zacks Rank: Mixed Signals, but a Tilt Toward Optimism

The Zacks Rank for Carvana reflects a split in analyst sentiment. Some recent assessments assign it a #2 (Buy) rating, signaling above-average returns, while others caution with a #3 (Hold) due to valuation concerns. This divergence highlights the stock's dual nature: a high-growth story tempered by market skepticism. However, the #2 rating's emphasis on earnings momentum aligns with Carvana's Q3 performance and 2025 projections, suggesting analysts are increasingly bullish on its ability to outperform broader market volatility.

PEG Ratio: A Contrarian Lens on Valuation

Carvana's PEG ratio offers a nuanced view of its valuation. At 1.4, the metric implies the stock is moderately overvalued relative to earnings growth. Yet, a December 23, 2025, report notes a PEG of 0.02-far below its 12-month average of 0.58. This discrepancy likely stems from rapidly revised earnings estimates, which can distort PEG calculations. For contrarian investors, the lower PEG suggests the market may be underestimating Carvana's growth potential, particularly if 2025's earnings surge continues into 2026.

Strategic Entry Point: Balancing Risk and Reward

Carvana's volatility is undeniable, but its financial trajectory-marked by record unit sales, margin expansion, and a clear path to $33.2 billion in revenue by 2028-presents a compelling case for strategic entry. The stock's mixed Zacks Rank and PEG ratio underscore the need for caution, yet these metrics also highlight a key opportunity: buying into a high-growth story before broader market optimism normalizes its valuation.

For investors with a medium-term horizon, Carvana's Q4 2025 guidance-projecting over 150,000 retail units sold and high-end Adjusted EBITDA-offers a tangible near-term benchmark. If the company meets these targets, it could catalyze a re-rating of its stock, particularly as skepticism wanes and growth metrics solidify.

Conclusion

Carvana's 2025 performance has redefined expectations for the automotive retail sector. While volatility remains a headwind, the company's earnings momentum, strong balance sheet, and ambitious growth targets create a rare intersection of contrarian value and long-term potential. For investors willing to navigate the noise, CVNA represents a high-conviction opportunity in a sector poised for transformation.