Cartesi/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-09-25

• Price tested a key support level at 6.5e-7 before consolidating near 6.6e-7.
• Volume spiked after the 04:30 ET breakdown, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, but price failed to rebound strongly.
• MACD remained negative, with bearish divergence in the 15-minute time frame.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed ahead of the recent move, hinting at increased volatility.

CTSIBTC opened at 6.9e-7 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded between 6.4e-7 and 6.9e-7 before closing at 6.6e-7 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 134,472.0, and turnover amounted to 6.64e-7 BTC. The pair showed increased bearish bias as it broke below prior support levels, with sharp volume surges confirming the downward bias.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart formed a bearish breakdown from 6.8e-7, with a key support at 6.5e-7 being tested twice and partially holding. A long-bodied bearish candle at 05:15 ET confirmed the breakdown. Doji and consolidation patterns were observed in the final hours, suggesting indecision. Key resistances at 6.7e-7 and 6.8e-7 remained intact, with no strong attempts to retake those levels.

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in a bearish alignment, with price closing below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 6.6e-7 level, potentially offering short-term resistance or support depending on the next move. The 200-period MA is significantly lower, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD was negative and in bearish territory, with the histogram showing a broadening decline after 05:00 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. RSI reached oversold conditions below 30 at 05:30 ET but failed to produce a strong rebound. This divergence suggests a weak short-term bounce may occur, but a return to bearish territory is likely unless a large-volume reversal candle forms.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, indicating a potential breakout. The move that followed was decisively bearish, with price closing near the lower band for most of the 24-hour period. The narrowing bands preceded increased volatility, and price now appears to be in a phase of consolidation near the lower band, which may either offer support or signal a further leg down if broken.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 04:30 ET (27,167.0) and 05:15 ET (69,533.0), confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover also surged during these periods, aligning with price action. Later in the day, volume subsided as price approached 6.5e-7, indicating reduced conviction among sellers. A divergence between volume and price could signal a potential short-term bounce, but this needs confirmation via a strong reversal pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 6.4e-7 to 6.9e-7 swing show the 61.8% level at 6.58e-7 as a potential near-term support. The 50% level at 6.645e-7 was briefly tested but failed to hold. A failure to hold the 38.2% level at 6.775e-7 would signal continued bearish pressure. Daily Fibonacci levels from earlier swings also show 6.6e-7 as a critical support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the alignment of bearish technical indicators—MACD divergence, RSI at oversold levels without a rebound, and Bollinger Band support failing—a potential backtest strategy could be triggered on a long-body reversal candle forming above 6.6e-7. A test of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 6.58e-7 could serve as an entry point, with a stop-loss placed below 6.5e-7 to protect against a continued breakdown. If the RSI closes above 50 and volume spikes upward again, this may confirm a short-term bullish bounce, suggesting a limited countertrend trade.