CART Plummets 6.3% Amid Regulatory Fears and Amazon's Expansion – What's Next?

Summary
• Maplebear (CART) drops 6.347% to $43.305, its lowest since 2023
• Amazon expands same-day grocery delivery to 2,300 cities, intensifying competition
• Price discrimination allegations spark regulatory concerns and profit-taking

Maplebear’s stock faces a sharp intraday selloff amid dual pressures: Amazon’s aggressive expansion in same-day grocery delivery and allegations of AI-driven price manipulation. The stock trades below its 52-week low, testing critical support levels as options volatility spikes. Traders are weighing whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper structural shift in the e-commerce landscape.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Amazon's Expansion Spark Sharp Selloff
Maplebear’s 6.3% decline is driven by two catalysts: Amazon’s expansion of its same-day perishable grocery delivery to 2,300 cities and a report alleging AI-powered price discrimination. Amazon’s move directly threatens Instacart’s market share, while the pricing allegations—highlighting 7% basket price variations—raise regulatory red flags. These factors triggered profit-taking from longs and panic selling from short-term traders, accelerating the selloff below key technical levels.

Internet Retail Sector Mixed as Amazon Rises
While Maplebear tumbles, the broader Internet Retail sector shows divergence. Amazon (AMZN) gains 1.41% as its cloud and advertising segments outperform. This contrast underscores Maplebear’s vulnerability to regulatory risks compared to Amazon’s diversified business model. However, the sector’s 2.18% 1-day gain suggests broader retail optimism, potentially limiting CART’s downside if the stock finds support near its 52-week low.

Options and ETF Plays for CART's Volatile Outlook
• 200-day MA: $42.92 (near current price), 50-day MA: $39.68 (below)
• RSI: 73.88 (overbought), MACD: 1.44 (bullish), Bollinger Bands: 45.35 (upper), 38.18 (lower)
• Key support: $38.18 (lower band), resistance: $45.35 (upper band)
• Sector ETF: XLK (up 1.2% today)

Two options stand out for short-term volatility plays:
• CART20251219C43 (Call, $43 strike, 12/19 expiry): IV 39.80%, leverage 34.54%, delta 0.5453, theta -0.1496, gamma 0.1393, turnover 21,298. High leverage and moderate delta for a bullish breakout above $43.
• CART20251219C43.5 (Call, $43.5 strike, 12/19 expiry): IV 38.11%, leverage 44.98%, delta 0.4731, theta -0.1356, gamma 0.1461, turnover 12,287. Strong gamma and liquidity for a rally above $43.50.

Under a 5% downside scenario (ST = $41.50), CART20251219C43 would expire worthless, while CART20251219C43.5 would also expire out-of-the-money. Aggressive bulls should target a break above $45.35 (Bollinger upper band) for a potential 10%+ move, while bears may consider the $38.18 (lower band) as a critical support level.

Backtest Maplebear Stock Performance
The CAT ETF experienced a significant intraday plunge of -6% on December 10, 2022. Following this event, the 3-Day win rate was 52.25%, the 10-Day win rate was 49.55%, and the 30-Day win rate was 59.46%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.87%, which occurred on day 47 after the event, indicating a positive short-to-medium-term rebound potential.

Act Now: CART at Pivotal Technical and Regulatory Crossroads
Maplebear’s 6.3% drop has created a critical juncture for investors. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions (RSI 73.88) and a bullish MACD crossover, the stock’s proximity to its 52-week low ($34.78) raises concerns. The options market reflects this tension, with high IV and leveraged calls indicating speculative positioning. Traders should monitor the $43.00 support level and Amazon’s (AMZN, +1.41%) performance as sector barometers. A break below $43.00 could trigger a deeper correction, while a rebound above $45.54 (intraday high) may signal short-covering. Position sizing should reflect the high volatility and regulatory uncertainty.