Carrier Global Rises 3.10% As Technical Indicators Signal Potential Rebound

Carrier Global (CARR) rose 3.10%, marking two consecutive days of gains with a 4.87% advance over this period, closing at $65.51 on September 5, 2025. This technical analysis evaluates key indicators to contextualize the rebound within the broader trend.
Candlestick Theory
The recent two-day bullish engulfing pattern (1.71% and 3.10% gains) follows a hammer candle on September 3 – characterized by a long lower wick ($61.77 low vs. $62.47 close) after a prolonged downtrend from the $71.67 July 29 peak. This suggests potential exhaustion of selling pressure near the $62.45-$61.77 support zone. Key resistance emerges at $66.17 (August 28 low) and $67.59 (August 27 close), while the $62.50 level now establishes immediate support.
Moving Average Theory
The stock trades below all key moving averages (50-day at approximately $69.5, 100-day at $70.5, and 200-day at $72), which are in descending order, confirming the bearish trend. These averages may now act as dynamic resistance levels. The golden cross (50-day above 200-day) was invalidated during July’s breakdown, replaced by bearish crossovers. The rebound requires clearance above $69.5 to signal potential trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows nascent bullish momentum, rising from deeply negative territory after a bullish crossover near oversold extremes. Meanwhile, the KDJ indicator exited oversold conditions (K:22%, D:18% on September 3) with a bullish K-line crossing above the D-line, reaching neutral readings. Both oscillators align in suggesting waning downward momentum, though confirmation requires sustained improvement above midpoint levels.
Bollinger Bands
September’s volatility expansion saw the price touch the lower Bollinger Band ($61.77) before rebounding toward the 20-day midline ($66.20). The bandwidth remains elevated, reflecting ongoing price instability. A close above the midline could signal bullish intent, while contraction would suggest directional consolidation. The current position in the lower band area reinforces $62.50 as critical support.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rebound’s volume profile raises concerns: the September 3 sell-off climax occurred on high volume (6.93M shares), but subsequent gains came on below-average volume (4.47M and 5.02M shares). This divergence suggests weak conviction in the recovery. Sustainability requires volume expansion, particularly above the 50-day average of 4.9M shares, to validate upward momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded from oversold territory (27.5 on September 3) to a neutral 47.5 by September 5, indicating moderating selling pressure. While the exit from oversold conditions supports the rebound, sustained recovery requires RSI strengthening above 55. Elevated bearish momentum is reflected in the preceding 8 sessions below 40.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the $71.67 (July 29 high) to $62.47 (September 3 low) decline: the 23.6% retracement ($64.64) was breached during the rebound, with the price now testing the 38.2% level ($65.98). This zone converges with the August 28 swing low ($66.17), creating a technical resistance cluster. A decisive close above $66.20 may trigger momentum toward the 50% retracement at $67.07.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at the $65.98-$66.20 resistance zone, where Fibonacci, Bollinger midline, and prior swing low converge. Divergence is noted in the volume discrepancy during the rebound versus the high-volume sell-off. Probabilistically, this rebound may extend toward $67 if RSI strengthens above 50 and volume confirms, though trend reversal requires overcoming the moving average cluster near $69-$70. Failure at $65.98 resistance risks retesting $62.50 support.