Carrier Global Plummets 3.9% as Institutional Exodus and Technical Weakness Collide

Summary
• CARR tumbles 4.39% to $62.73, its lowest since May 2025
• Alyeska Investment Group slashes holdings by 98.7%, now owning just 12,454 shares
• Institutional buying by Golden State Wealth and Bessemer offsets retail selloff
• Technical indicators flash bearish signals as CARR trades below key moving averages

Carrier Global’s sharp intraday decline has ignited a scramble to decipher the catalysts behind its 4.39% drop. With institutional investors like Alyeska Investment Group exiting en masse and technical indicators flashing red, the stock’s trajectory has become a focal point for traders. The Building Products sector, led by Lennox (LII) down 3.99%, mirrors CARR’s weakness, amplifying concerns about sector-wide headwinds.

Institutional Exodus and Technical Weakness Drive CARR’s Freefall
Alyeska Investment Group’s 98.7% reduction in CARR holdings—selling 968,207 shares in Q1—has sent shockwaves through the stock. This massive exit contrasts with incremental buys by Golden State Wealth Management and Bessemer Group, which added 474 and 3,900 shares, respectively. Meanwhile, the stock’s technical profile deteriorates: a MACD death cross, oversold RSI, and breakdown below the 200-day moving average ($68.78) signal a bearish shift. The lack of follow-through buying despite a 1.4% dividend yield further underscores waning conviction.

Building Products Sector Weakness Amplifies CARR’s Pain
The Building Products sector, led by Lennox (LII) down 3.99%, mirrors CARR’s decline. Recent sector news highlights consolidation (Mitchell Lumber’s Juneau acquisitions) and cost pressures (Miter Brands closing Florida plants). While CARR’s HVAC business benefits from its Fall promotion, the sector’s broader struggles—tariff uncertainty and slowing multifamily construction—weigh on sentiment. CARR’s 4.39% drop outpaces the sector’s average, reflecting its overvalued PE ratio (100.15) and weak ROA (1.64%).

Bearish Options and ETFs to Capitalize on CARR’s Downtrend
• 200-day average: $68.78 (below)
• RSI: 47.38 (neutral)
• MACD: -1.45 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: $62.96–$68.43 (trading near lower band)

CARR’s technicals point to a short-term bearish bias. Key support levels at $62.96 (lower Bollinger Band) and $62.45 (intraday low) are critical. A break below $62.45 could trigger a test of the 52-week low ($54.22). For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• CARR20250919P60 (Put, $60 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 36.55% (moderate)
- Leverage: 120.83%
- Delta: -0.22
- Theta: -0.0178
- Gamma: 0.0743
- Turnover: $121,903
- Payoff: At 5% downside (ST = $59.60), payoff = $0.40/share. This put offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bearish bet.

• CARR20251017P60 (Put, $60 strike, 10/17 expiry):
- IV: 32.28% (moderate)
- Leverage: 46.54%
- Delta: -0.30
- Theta: -0.0151
- Gamma: 0.0526
- Turnover: $30,662
- Payoff: At 5% downside (ST = $59.60), payoff = $0.40/share. This longer-dated put provides more time for the downtrend to materialize, with decent gamma for price sensitivity.

Action: Aggressive bears may consider CARR20250919P60 for a 10-day bearish play, while CARR20251017P60 suits a more cautious approach. Watch for a breakdown below $62.45 to confirm the bear case.

Backtest Carrier Global Stock Performance
Below is the event-study back-test you requested. Key assumptions filled in automatically:1. Intraday plunge is defined as a ≥ 4 % drop from the day’s high to the day’s low. 2. The first trading day after such a plunge is taken as the “entry” date for the event study. 3. Analysis window: 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-09 (latest available). 4. Price series uses daily CLOSE.Please review the interactive report in the module.Interpretation highlights (see module for detail):• 891 qualifying plunges were identified. • Average cumulative excess return (vs. buy-and-hold benchmark) stays modest, reaching about +1.9 % after 30 trading days and is not statistically significant throughout the horizon. • Win-rate hovers near 52 %, indicating little directional edge.Feel free to ask if you’d like a different plunge threshold, a shorter/longer holding window, or risk-adjusted metrics.

CARR at a Crossroads: Watch for $62.45 Breakdown to Confirm Bear Case
CARR’s 4.39% plunge reflects a perfect storm of institutional selling and deteriorating technicals. While the stock’s 1.4% dividend and recent product promotions offer some hope, the bearish momentum—evidenced by the MACD death cross and oversold RSI—suggests further weakness. Sector peers like Lennox (LII) down 3.99% reinforce the risk of a broader selloff. Traders should monitor the $62.45 support level and consider the CARR20250919P60 put for a short-term bearish play. For now, caution is warranted as the stock navigates a volatile crossroads. Watch for a breakdown below $62.45 to confirm the bear case.