Carrier Global Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Carrier Global (CARR) appears to be in a weak technical position with a score of 3.65 as of September 17, 2025, suggesting it is best to avoid the stock for now.

News Highlights

• Quanex Building Products (NX) Dividend Announcement: Quanex declared a $0.08 per share dividend, reinforcing its shareholder-friendly stance. While this news is positive for Quanex, it is unrelated to CARR but could reflect broader market sentiment toward value stocks.
• Zara Founder Purchases Building in Barcelona: Amancio Ortega, founder of Zara, bought a €250 million ($283 million) office building in Barcelona from Blackstone. This is a major real estate deal but does not directly affect Carrier Global’s operations or market position.
• Telcos Building AI Infrastructure: Telecommunications companies globally are investing in AI infrastructure powered by NVIDIA, signaling a trend in tech-driven infrastructure growth. While not specific to CARR, it highlights broader industry opportunities that could indirectly affect Carrier Global’s business environment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 4.33
Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 1.71
Rating Consistency: Analysts have shown mixed views, with three active analysts issuing two "Buy" and one "Strong Buy" ratings, but their historical performance is poor (win rates between 0.0% and 42.9%).

The current price trend for CARR is a 2.47% decline, aligning with the pessimistic market expectations and the weighted ratings. The stock is overhyped by analysts despite recent price weakness.

Key Fundamental Factor Values and Model Scores:

• Net Assets per Share (Growth Rate %): 7.77% - Internal diagnostic score: 4.00
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit (%): 93.74% - Internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• PE Ratio: 100.15 - Internal diagnostic score: 4.00
• Gross Margin (GPM): 28.94% - Internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Net Income / Revenue: 12.59% - Internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• GMAR: 28.94% - Internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Total Profit (YoY Growth Rate %): 67.69% - Internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Shareholders’ Equity (Growth Rate %): 4.44% - Internal diagnostic score: 1.00
• Net Cash Flow / Total Liabilities (%): 4.82% - Internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• EBIT / Total Operating Revenue (%): 13.53% - Internal diagnostic score: 2.00

Money-Flow Trends

The fund-flow patterns for CARR show mixed signals. While small investors are showing a slight positive trend (Small_trend: positive), large and extra-large investors are trending negatively. The overall fund-flow score is 7.75 (score_level: good), suggesting that the stock may still be attractive to certain institutional players.

Big Money vs. Retail Flows: The block trend is positive (block_trend: positive), but the medium and extra-large trends are negative. This suggests some big-money players are still cautious or taking profits, while retail traders may be more optimistic.

Key Technical Signals

Carrier Global’s technical indicators present a mixed and confusing picture. The overall trend is weak with a technical score of 3.65.

• Long Lower Shadow: Internal diagnostic score: 7.86 - a bullish signal with a historical win rate of 75.0% and an average return of 1.46%.
• WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 3.33 - a neutral signal with a win rate of 51.79% and an average return of 0.13%.
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 1.48 - a bearish signal with a win rate of 40.0% and an average return of -1.37%.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 1.93 - a neutral signal with a win rate of 41.67% and an average return of -0.85%.

Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days):

• 2025-09-10: Long Lower Shadow (bullish)
• 2025-09-11: MACD Death Cross (bearish)
• 2025-09-03: WR Oversold (neutral), MACD Death Cross (bearish)
• 2025-09-05: MACD Golden Cross (neutral)
• 2025-09-15: WR Oversold (neutral)

Key Insights: The technical side is weak, and it is suggested to avoid the stock. The bearish indicators (3) clearly outweigh the bullish ones (1), indicating a lack of clear direction and increased volatility.

Conclusion

Given the mixed signals from both technical and fundamental analysis, and the weak technical score of 3.65, it may be prudent to avoid or consider waiting for a clearer direction in Carrier Global’s stock. While the fundamentals show some strength in specific metrics, the technical indicators and recent price trends suggest caution. Investors should closely monitor key events such as future earnings reports and macroeconomic developments for clearer guidance.