Carnival Shares Slide 4.92% To Extend 3-Day 8.57% Decline Amid Technical Breakdown

Carnival Corporation (CCL) shares declined 4.92% in the most recent session, extending their losing streak to three consecutive days with a cumulative 8.57% drop amid elevated trading volumes. This technical analysis evaluates key patterns and indicators to assess the stock's potential trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows concerning patterns for Carnival. The three-day decline culminated in a long red candle on June 13th, closing near session lows after breaking below the $23.50 support level. This follows a bearish engulfing pattern formed between June 10th and 11th, where an up-day candle was entirely negated by the subsequent down-day. Notably, the current $22.41 close is testing the psychological $22 support, while resistance now emerges near $24.50 – aligning with June’s failed rebound attempts and the 100-day moving average.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration reflects weakening momentum. Carnival’s price has fallen below all key averages, with the 50-day ($23.52) crossing bearishly under the 100-day ($24.10) in early June – a classic "death cross" typically preceding intermediate-term weakness. The 200-day moving average at $21.68 offers the next potential support, though its positive slope suggests the longer-term trend remains moderately bullish. However, the expanding distance below shorter-term averages highlights near-term downward pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Both momentum oscillators signal bearish conditions. The MACD histogram has been printing increasingly negative values since late May, with the signal line maintaining its position below the zero line. Similarly, the KDJ indicator shows the %K line (21.3) and %D line (28.6) entrenched in oversold territory below 30. While these readings suggest capitulation, they have not yet triggered bullish crossovers despite extreme levels, indicating sustained selling pressure that may require further consolidation before reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Heightened volatility is evident in Carnival’s price action. The June 13th close touched the lower Bollinger Band ($22.12) as bands widened sharply during the selloff – typically signaling continuation of the current trend. Historically, such band expansions have coincided with directional moves for Carnival, with the latest expansion following a prolonged compression period in late May. A close below the lower band would indicate potential overshooting, but recovery requires reconquering the middle band ($23.71).
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns are evident in volume dynamics. The three-day decline occurred on progressively higher volume (21.3M→22.8M→36.9M shares), confirming bearish conviction. This contrasts sharply with the weak volume seen during June’s attempted rallies, suggesting institutional selling. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) since June 1st sits at $23.45, now acting as resistance. Sustained trading below this level with elevated volume validates the breakdown.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Carnival’s 14-day RSI at 28.7 sits deep in oversold territory, approaching levels last seen during the October 2024 correction. While this may indicate potential exhaustion, notable divergences exist: the RSI reached similar oversold readings in May 2025 before further declines materialized. Historically, RSI readings below 30 have preceded technical bounces for Carnival, but traders should note that oversold conditions can persist during strong downtrends without immediate reversal signals from price action.
Fibonacci Retracement
Based on the April 2025 trough ($19.02) to June 2025 peak ($24.63), key Fibonacci levels provide critical reference points. Carnival has breached the 38.2% retracement ($22.47) – a level that now acts as resistance. The next downside targets align with the 50% ($21.83) and 61.8% ($21.18) retracements, the latter converging with the 200-day moving average. Confluence exists at $21.80-22.00, where psychological support, Fibonacci, and the moving average intersect.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple technical indicators converge to underscore near-term bearish momentum for Carnival. The breakdown below moving averages, confirmed by expanding volume and aligned sell signals in MACD/KDJ, suggests continued pressure toward the $21.80-22.00 confluence zone. Notable divergences appear between oversold RSI readings and ongoing price declines – such conditions have previously resolved through either technical rebounds or consolidation periods before directional resolution. A sustained recovery would require reconquering the $23.50 VWAP-resistance zone with volume confirmation, though current evidence suggests bears retain control in the immediate term.