Carlyle warns of the potential "overheating" in US tech stocks and considers shifting to "extremely cheap" European equities.

Jason Thomas, a partner at the Carlyle Group, said the rally in large U.S. tech stocks was beginning to look overdone, while the appeal of troubled European markets was boosted. Speaking Tuesday, Thomas said the euro could trade at parity with the dollar in the coming months, giving dollar investors a tailwind in foreign exchange trading, and that European stocks were trading at “extremely cheap” valuations. He said European stocks were trading at a 40% discount to U.S. assets.Thomas, who is based in Washington and is head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle, said “there is a pretty decent risk premium” for investors, while he said large tech companies were taking on more “capital-intensive” business models, which were subject to more scrutiny.Thomas’s views make him a contrarian, as European economic recovery forecasts remain elusive while U.S. tech stocks have performed well. The S&P 500 has risen 186% over the next 10 years, dwarfing the 48% gain of the Stoxx Europe 600.However, the euro hit a 12-month low of 1.0226 euros to the dollar last week, far below the 1.1214 euros it reached in September. Bloomberg’s FX Rate Forecast Model shows the risk of the euro falling below 1 euro to the dollar is rising.Thomas said he would be watching developments in Europe closely. He said a major unresolved question was whether leaders would act on the advice of former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi to invest up to €80bn a year and commit to regular issuance of joint bonds to boost the global competitiveness of the eurozone.On U.S. tech, Thomas said investors needed to see whether the large investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centres would pay off, a wave that has driven Nvidia up nearly threefold in the past 12 months, and how it would fare.“These companies’ valuations imply a return on capital of 25-30%, and we are waiting for the actual results,” he said.