Carlyle Group Surges 3.78% on Bullish Reversal 5.18% Rally Supported by Bollinger Band Proximity and Golden Cross

Carlyle Group (CG) has surged 3.78% in the latest session, marking a three-day rally with a cumulative gain of 5.18%. The price action suggests a potential bullish reversal, supported by a recent close near the upper Bollinger Band and elevated trading volume. Key support levels appear to be forming around the $61.77–$62.43 range, while resistance is clustered near $65.03. The candlestick pattern, characterized by a long bullish body following a period of consolidation, may indicate a short-term reversal from a prior downtrend.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action forms a bullish engulfing pattern, with the last three days’ candles showing strong buying pressure. A key support level is identified at $61.77 (August 11 low), which coincides with a prior intraday low and could act as a psychological floor. Resistance is evident at $65.03 (August 12 high), where a bearish pinbar formed, suggesting potential near-term exhaustion. A break above $65.03 could target the next resistance at $67.50, derived from the 200-day moving average.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is confirmed by the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day line, forming a “golden cross.” The 50-day MA currently sits at approximately $63.20, while the 200-day MA is around $62.50. The 100-day MA at $63.80 further reinforces the uptrend. However, the 50-day MA may face resistance at $64.50 in the coming weeks, which could trigger a pullback if volume fails to sustain the rally.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, signaling strengthening momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator is in overbought territory (K=82, D=75), suggesting a potential short-term correction. However, the absence of bearish divergence between price and KDJ (e.g., lower highs in %K) implies the uptrend may persist. A drop below the 50-level in KDJ could act as a filter for further buying opportunities.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the recent sharp move. The price is currently near the upper band at $64.76, indicating overbought conditions. A retest of the lower band at $61.00–$61.50 could occur if the $65.03 resistance fails, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to 2.65 million shares on the latest rally, a 30% increase from the prior session. This validates the price move’s strength but also raises caution about sustainability. If volume declines in subsequent sessions while the price remains above $63.50, it may signal distribution by short-term traders.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is at 68, hovering near overbought territory. While this suggests caution, the RSI has not yet formed bearish divergences. A close above 70 would confirm a bullish bias, but a drop below 60 could trigger profit-taking. The RSI’s alignment with the MACD’s bullish signal creates a confluence for continued upward momentum.

Fibonacci Retracement

The 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent downtrend (e.g., from $65.03 to $61.77) are at $63.40 and $62.95, respectively. These levels coincide with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, creating a high-probability zone for consolidation or a breakout attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Tweezer Bottom pattern, identified in the data (e.g., the August 6–7 price action), historically signals a reliable buying opportunity. For example, LifeStance Health (LFST) and Olema Pharmaceuticals (Olema) showed significant gains post-pattern formation. In Carlyle’s case, the recent bullish reversal aligns with this pattern, suggesting a potential 10–15% upside over the next 3–6 months, provided the $65.03 resistance is cleared. This hypothesis integrates with the technical indicators: the MACD’s bullish crossover and Fibonacci levels reinforce the pattern’s validity.