Carlyle Group Stock Plunges 4.00% to 2025 Low on Earnings Miss, Weaker Realizations

The share price fell to its lowest level since June 2025 today, with an intraday decline of 4.00%.

The Carlyle Group’s stock slump followed a sharp earnings miss in its third-quarter 2025 report, marked by a 12.6% year-over-year revenue drop to $782.5 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.87, 15% below estimates. Management attributed the underperformance to weaker private equity realizations, volatile public markets, and operational challenges. CEO Harvey Schwartz acknowledged the unpredictability of private equity exits but reiterated a $0.35 per share dividend, payable November 10, emphasizing capital returns. Analysts, however, questioned the sustainability of the payout amid earnings volatility and competitive pressures.

The earnings shortfall highlighted structural headwinds, including fee erosion in asset management and cyclical private equity deal activity. Despite this, management expressed confidence in credit and insurance segments, which showed resilience. CFO John Redett noted strong inflow momentum in credit and AlpInvest, while Schwartz emphasized 2026 growth priorities in credit, insurance, and wealth products. Analysts remain divided on Carlyle’s valuation, with fair value estimates ranging from $45.83 to $69.25 per share. Sustained public market volatility and the pace of private equity realizations will be critical near-term catalysts for the firm’s recovery trajectory.