Carlyle Group Shares Jump 3.30% to $60.11 Amid Technical Breakout Signals

The Carlyle Group (CG) shares advanced 3.30% to $60.11 in the latest session, marking a two-day cumulative gain of 4.29% amid rising trading volume. This analysis evaluates key technical signals derived from the one-year price history.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal a consolidation breakout pattern. The 07/15 candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $58.97, suggesting temporary resistance near $59.27. However, subsequent bullish candles on 07/16 and 07/17 closed above this level with widening real bodies, confirming upside momentum. Key support now emerges at the July swing low of $54.99, while immediate resistance sits at the yearly high of $60.19 recorded in the latest session. A decisive close above $60.19 would signal continuation potential.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($52.80) crossed above the 100-day MA ($49.30) in early June, establishing a golden crossover that triggered the current uptrend. All three moving averages (50-day: $55.10, 100-day: $50.90, 200-day: $46.75) now slope upward in bullish alignment. The price trading 9% above the 50-day MA indicates strong short-term momentum but flags potential overextension risks. The ascending 200-day MA underscores the dominant long-term uptrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish configuration, with the histogram expanding for five consecutive sessions and the signal line maintaining an upward trajectory since early July. Meanwhile, KDJ metrics (K:82, D:75, J:96) reflect overbought territory, with the J-line nearing 100. This divergence between MACD’s sustained bullish momentum and KDJ’s extreme readings warrants caution—while the trend remains intact, near-term pullback probability increases.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-period) widened sharply during the early July advance from $51 to $60, signaling heightened volatility. The price currently hugs the upper band at $60.19, typically indicating overbought conditions. A contraction in bandwidth from current levels would suggest consolidation. Immediate support rests at the 20-day moving average midline ($56.40), aligning with July’s consolidation zone.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 54% during the 07/16-07/17 rally compared to the 30-day average, validating the breakout. Notably, accumulation days increased in June when the price broke above $50, and again in July above $58, confirming institutional participation. Declining volume during minor pullbacks (e.g., 07/11’s -0.26% move) signals limited selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 78, above the overbought threshold. Historically, similar RSI peaks in April 2025 preceded 15% corrections. However, sustained RSI readings above 70 occurred during strong trends in January and March, suggesting the metric may remain elevated temporarily. Current divergence warnings should be weighed against MACD’s strength and volume confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the September 2024 low ($37.02) and July 2025 high ($60.19) shows the 61.8% retracement at $52.25. This level served as reliable support during June-July consolidations. The 38.2% level ($57.60) now acts as immediate support, having been tested during the 07/15 dip. Confluence exists between this level, the 50-day MA ($55.10), and the psychological $55 barrier, creating a robust support zone.
Confluence and Divergence
Strong confluence appears at the $56.40-$57.60 support region, where Bollinger midline, Fibonacci, and moving averages converge, backed by high-volume accumulation. Divergence concerns arise from RSI’s overbought reading conflicting with MACD’s bullish momentum and KDJ’s extreme positioning. However, the primary trend remains constructive given moving average alignment and volume-backed breakouts. Traders should monitor whether RSI resets via consolidation or correction.