Carlyle Group Rises 5.96% on Bullish Crossover and Fibonacci Confluence

The Carlyle Group (CG) rose 5.96% in the most recent session, extending a bullish trend amid volatile price action over the preceding weeks. This sharp rebound follows a deep selloff in late January and early February, where the stock traded as low as $53.95 before stabilizing. Below is a technical analysis of key indicators.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action reveals a potential bullish reversal pattern. A strong white candle closed near the high of $58.71 on 2026-02-06, piercing above the prior session’s low of $53.95 and forming a bullish engulfing pattern. Key support levels are identified at $55.41 (2026-02-05 close) and $53.95 (2026-02-05 low), while resistance is marked at $58.39 (2026-02-04 close). The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the January–February decline aligns with $58.39, suggesting a confluence of support. A break above $58.71 could target the 78.6% retracement at $60.36, though a retest of $55.41 would be critical for trend validation.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately $56.50–$57.00) currently sits below the 100-day ($58.00–$58.50) and 200-day ($57.50–$58.00) averages, indicating a short-term bullish crossover. The price closed above both the 50-day and 100-day lines on 2026-02-06, suggesting momentum. However, the 200-day line remains a critical psychological barrier; a sustained close above $58.71 would confirm a shift in the long-term trend. The 50/100-day crossover suggests a “golden cross” potential, though confirmation would require further strength.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on 2026-02-06, signaling bullish momentum. The KDJ (stochastic) indicator shows %K ($60–$62) above %D ($58–$60), suggesting overbought conditions. However, the RSI (discussed below) at ~70+ indicates caution. A divergence between %K and price action (e.g., %K peaking while the stock rises) may hint at a near-term pullback. The MACD and KDJ align in the short term but require volume confirmation to avoid false signals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded sharply, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow contraction in early February. The current price of $58.71 sits near the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions and potential for a reversion toward the 20-day moving average ($57.50–$58.00). A break above the upper band may extend the rally, while a drop below the middle band could trigger a test of the lower band at $56.00–$56.50.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged to $282.6 million on the 5.96% rally, a 30% increase from the prior session. This supports the validity of the breakout. However, volume has been inconsistent during the January–February decline, with spikes during selloffs (e.g., $405.5 million on 2026-02-03). Sustained volume above $250 million on up days would reinforce the bullish case, while declining volume during rallies could signal exhaustion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI stands at ~70+, indicating overbought conditions. While this suggests a potential pullback, the recent rally may persist if the RSI remains above 60 and volume remains robust. A drop below 50 would signal bearish momentum, but the current overbought reading must be interpreted cautiously, as the stock has shown resilience in previous overbought phases.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the January high of $66.445 to the February low of $53.95 include:

- 23.6%: $61.28

- 38.2%: $59.62

- 50%: $58.39

- 61.8%: $56.70
The current price near $58.71 aligns with the 50% retracement level, acting as a pivotal support/resistance zone. A break above $59.62 could target the 38.2% level, while a drop below $58.39 may test the 61.8% retracement at $56.70.

Confluence and Divergences

The most compelling confluence occurs at $58.39–$58.71, where Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, and candlestick patterns intersect. The MACD and KDJ indicators align with short-term bullish momentum, but the RSI’s overbought reading introduces caution. A divergence between MACD and price action (e.g., MACD declining while the stock rises) may foreshadow a reversal. Conversely, a sustained close above $58.71 with increasing volume could validate a multi-week uptrend.

Final Assessment
The Carlyle Group exhibits a high-probability short-term bullish setup, supported by candlestick reversals, moving average crossovers, and Fibonacci levels. However, overbought conditions and potential MACD/KDJ divergences warrant caution. Traders should monitor volume dynamics and key psychological levels ($58.39, $59.62) for confirmation of trend sustainability. A breakdown below $55.41 would invalidate the bullish case, while a sustained close above $59.62 may signal a broader recovery.