Carlyle Group Jumps 3.87% To $64.71 As Bullish Technicals Signal Extended Rally

The Carlyle Group (CG) advanced 3.87% to close at $64.71 in its latest session, marking its second consecutive gain and bringing its two-day return to 5.49%. This strength occurred on volume of 2.06 million shares, slightly below the prior session's 3.19 million but remaining above the 30-day average.
Candlestick Theory
The price action reveals a bullish reversal pattern, with the August 20th session printing a hammer candle at $60.46 (support) after testing June lows. Subsequent sessions formed two solid white candles, breaking through the $62.50 resistance zone (previous consolidation area) with conviction. The $65.36 intraday high now serves as immediate resistance, while $60.46 stands as a major support floor. Continued closes above $62.50 validate the breakout.
Moving Average Theory
Price trades robustly above all key moving averages: the 50-day ($56.82), 100-day ($52.18), and 200-day ($48.07). This configuration confirms a long-term bullish trend. Notably, the 50-day crossed above the 200-day in early July—a "golden cross" that historically precedes extended uptrends. The ascending alignment (50 > 100 > 200) signals persistent bullish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a strengthening bullish stance, with the MACD line accelerating above its signal line since early August and the histogram expanding. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (9,3) shows the K-line at 88 and D-line at 85—deep in overbought territory. While this confirms the current momentum, it flags elevated short-term exhaustion risk, particularly as the J-line approaches 100.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20,2) expanded sharply during the recent rally, reflecting heightened volatility. Price pierced the upper band ($62.50) consecutively, signaling extreme bullish momentum. Such breakouts often precede either trend continuation or short-term consolidation. Watch for band contraction to gauge volatility normalization and potential continuation levels.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 44% to 3.19 million shares during the initial breakout on August 21st, validating the bullish move. Follow-through volume, while lower (2.06 million), remained above the 1-month average, supporting trend sustainability. The volume profile highlights $58–$62 as a high-volume node, reinforcing its importance as support. Declining volume on pullbacks would indicate weak selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 75, entering overbought territory (>70). Historically, RSI above 75 has preceded minor consolidations, such as the late July dip when RSI peaked at 78. Nevertheless, sustained readings between 70–80 can occur during strong trends. This divergence with KDJ’s extreme overbought reading warrants caution for a near-term pullback, but does not invalidate the structural uptrend.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the swing low of $34.78 (April 21) to the recent high of $65.36, key retracement levels emerge at $58.06 (23.6%), $53.67 (38.2%), and $50.07 (50%). The current price holds above the 23.6% retracement level, reinforcing it as critical support. The 127.2% extension at $69.87 presents the next upside target.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence occurs at $62.50–$63, where the breakout level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and Bollinger midline intersect, strengthening its role as support. Conversely, bearish divergence emerges with the KDJ’s extreme overbought signal against RSI’s less emphatic overbought condition. This suggests momentum is stretched, though trend-defining indicators like MACD and moving averages maintain bullish alignment. Probabilistically, the path of least resistance leans upward after consolidation, targeting $69.87.