CareDx (CDNA) Surges 14.27% on Q4 Revenue Beat and Testing Services Growth Momentum

Summary
• CareDx (CDNA) surges 14.27% intraday, trading at $19.575 after opening at $17.95
• Q4 revenue guidance of $108M (+25% YoY) and testing services volume of 53K (+17% YoY) drive optimism
• Bollinger Bands and RSI signal oversold rebound potential amid 52W low of $10.96

CareDx’s explosive 14.27% rally on January 12, 2026, reflects a confluence of strong Q4 revenue guidance and technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout. With testing services revenue up 23% YoY and volume growth accelerating, the stock’s intraday high of $19.84 suggests short-term bullish momentum. Traders are now weighing whether this surge aligns with broader sector trends or signals a standalone breakout.

Q4 Revenue Beat and Testing Services Growth Drive CDNA's Intraday Surge
CareDx’s 14.27% intraday surge is directly tied to its preliminary Q4 revenue guidance of $108 million (+25% YoY) and testing services revenue of $78 million (+23% YoY). The company’s testing services volume of 53,000 (+17% YoY) further underscores demand for its transplant diagnostics. These figures, combined with a 14% YoY rise in full-year 2025 revenue to $380 million, have positioned CDNA as a high-growth outlier in a sector where peers like Labcorp (LH) are down 0.48%. The stock’s sharp rebound from its 52W low of $10.96 suggests a short-covering rally amid oversold RSI (32.36) and a MACD histogram (-0.37) hinting at bearish exhaustion.

Health Care Services Sector Mixed as Labcorp Drags, CDNA Defies Trend
The Health Care Services sector is broadly mixed, with Labcorp (LH) down 0.48% despite CareDx’s 14.27% surge. This divergence highlights CDNA’s unique momentum, driven by its transplant diagnostics niche. While sector-wide concerns about Medicaid cuts and AI integration in healthcare linger, CareDx’s Q4 results demonstrate resilience in a fragmented market. The stock’s performance contrasts with broader sector underperformance, suggesting its growth is decoupling from macroeconomic headwinds.

Options Playbook: CDNA20260220C17.5 and CDNA20260220C20 for Bullish Exposure
• RSI: 32.36 (oversold)
• MACD: 0.0073 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.3807, Histogram: -0.3734
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $20.94, Middle $19.26, Lower $17.57
• 200D MA: $16.35 (below current price)

CareDx’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup. The stock is trading near its 200D MA and above the Bollinger Middle Band, with RSI indicating oversold conditions. Key resistance lies at $20.94 (Upper Band) and $20 (psychological level).

Top Option 1: CDNA20260220C17.5
• Code: CDNA20260220C17.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $17.50
• Expiration: 2026-02-20
• IV: 57.34% (moderate)
• Leverage: 7.02%
• Delta: 0.768 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0271 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.0817 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 280 (liquidity)
• Price Change: +21.74%
This call option offers high gamma and moderate IV, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakout above $20.94. A 5% upside to $20.55 would yield a payoff of $3.05 per contract.

Top Option 2: CDNA20260220C20
• Code: CDNA20260220C20
• Type: Call
• Strike: $20.00
• Expiration: 2026-02-20
• IV: 28.92% (low)
• Leverage: 30.73%
• Delta: 0.468 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0183 (low decay)
• Gamma: 0.211 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 0 (liquidity concern)
• Price Change: 0.00%
While the $20 strike has lower IV, its high gamma and leverage make it a speculative play if CDNA breaks above $20.94. A 5% upside would yield a $0.55 payoff per contract.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider CDNA20260220C17.5 into a break above $20.50, while conservative traders should watch for a retest of the $19.26 (Middle Band) support.

Backtest CareDx Stock Performance
The backtest of CDNA's performance following a 14% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals a significant underperformance. The strategy yielded a return of -58.82%, lagging the benchmark by 101.79%. With a maximum drawdown of 0% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.24, the strategy demonstrated a high risk and a substantial loss.

Bullish Momentum Intact—Position for CDNA's Next Move
CareDx’s 14.27% surge reflects strong Q4 momentum and technical oversold conditions, but sustainability hinges on breaking above $20.94 (Upper Bollinger Band). Traders should monitor the $19.26 (Middle Band) support and $20.00 psychological level. With Labcorp (LH) down 0.48%, CDNA’s outperformance suggests its growth story is gaining traction. Act now: Buy CDNA20260220C17.5 for a high-gamma play on a potential $20.94 breakout, or short-term traders can target a retest of $19.26 for a mean-reversion entry.