Cardlytics Surges 20.88% on Intraday Rally: What's Fueling the Volatility?

Summary
• Cardlytics (CDLX) surges 20.88% to $2.0307, marking a dramatic rebound from its intraday low of $1.70.
• The stock trades at 3.57% turnover, with a 52-week range of $1.22 to $8.94.
• Options activity spikes on August 15 chain, with 114 put and 2,285 call contracts traded.
• Sector leader Adobe (ADBE) gains 0.417% on tech sector tailwinds.

Cardlytics’ intraday volatility has ignited a sharp 20.88% rally, driven by a confluence of technical factors and options-driven liquidity. The stock’s 52-week low anchor at $1.22 contrasts with its current 2.10-intraday high, signaling a potential short-term reversal. With a dynamic PE of -2.01 and a 58.49 RSI near neutrality, the move demands scrutiny of its catalysts.

Options-Driven Volatility and Short-Term Technicals Fuel CDLX Surge
The 20.88% intraday jump in CDLX lacks direct linkage to company-specific news, as the latest updates pertain to unrelated entities like eHealth, Inc. Instead, the surge aligns with elevated options activity on the August 15 chain, where the $2 strike call option (CDLX20250815C2) traded 2,285 contracts with 90% price change and 154.93% implied volatility. The put option (CDLX20250815P2) saw 114 contracts traded, reflecting 24.39% price decline. This options-driven liquidity, coupled with a 58.49 RSI and MACD crossover (histogram at -0.0052), suggests algorithmic and speculative positioning rather than fundamental catalysts.

Software & Services Sector Steadies as Adobe (ADBE) Leads 0.417% Rally
The Software & Services sector, as represented by Adobe (ADBE), advanced 0.417% on the day, contrasting with CDLX’s 20.88% intraday surge. While CDLX’s move lacks direct sector linkage, the broader tech sector saw mixed momentum, with headlines on AI advancements and cybersecurity developments. Adobe’s leadership reflects sustained demand for creative and enterprise software, but CDLX’s volatility remains idiosyncratic to its options-driven short-term dynamics.

Capitalizing on CDLX Volatility: Options and Technicals for Aggressive Traders
• 200-day average: 2.7467 (above current price)
• RSI: 58.49 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.0144 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.0091 (bearish), Histogram: -0.0052 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper 1.8758, Middle 1.7290, Lower 1.5822 (price at 2.0307, above upper band)
• Key Levels: 2.10 (intraday high), 1.7829 (200D support), 1.22 (52W low)

With CDLX trading above its 200-day average and 58.49 RSI near neutrality, the stock exhibits mixed signals. Aggressive traders may target the August 15 $2 call (CDLX20250815C2) and put (CDLX20250815P2) contracts, which offer high leverage and liquidity. The call’s 6.61% leverage ratio and 0.607956 delta suggest strong upside participation, while the put’s 6.83% leverage and -0.391012 delta provide downside protection. For a 5% upside scenario (ST = 2.1322), the call payoff would be $0.1322 per share, and the put payoff would be $0.00 (out of the money).

Top Options Picks:
• CDLX20250815C2 (Call)
- Strike Price: $2.00
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 154.93% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.607956 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.007777 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.453322 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 83,782 (high liquidity)
- Lverage Ratio: 6.61% (high)
• CDLX20250815P2 (Put)
- Strike Price: $2.00
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 157.89% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: -0.391012 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.004480 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.444500 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 3,619 (moderate liquidity)
- Lverage Ratio: 6.61% (high)

Both contracts offer high gamma and leverage, ideal for a volatile short-term trade. The call is preferable for bullish continuation above $2.10, while the put serves as a hedge if the rally stalls. Given the 154.93% IV in the call and 157.89% in the put, traders should monitor for IV compression post-expiration on August 15, which could trigger a liquidity crunch.

Backtest Cardlytics Stock Performance
The 21% intraday surge in CDLX has historically led to short-term gains, but overall performance remains lackluster. The 3-Day win rate is 49.55%, the 10-Day win rate is 46.86%, and the 30-Day win rate is 38.96%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate term versus the medium to long term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.05%, suggesting that while there is potential for gains, they are often modest and may not consistently meet expectations.

Act Now: CDLX’s Volatility Window Narrows—Target 2.10 or Exit by August 15
Cardlytics’ 20.88% intraday surge hinges on its ability to hold the 2.10 level and avoid retesting the 1.7829 support. With a 58.49 RSI and MACD divergence, the stock’s momentum is fragile. Sector leader Adobe (ADBE) gains 0.417%, indicating broader tech sector stability. Aggressive bulls should consider the August 15 $2 call (CDLX20250815C2) for a 5% upside target, while cautious traders should monitor the 1.7829 support. With options expiration looming on August 15, liquidity may tighten—position accordingly before time decay accelerates.