Cardlytics Skyrockets 36.45% Intraday—Is Options Volatility Fueling the Surge?

Summary
• Cardlytics (CDLX) surged 36.45% to $2.9152, defying its 52-week low of $1.22 and 26.46% turnover rate.
• Options activity on the August 15 chain exploded, with 5.4 million shares traded in the $3 strike call option (CDLX20250815C3).
• The stock’s 73.33 RSI and MACD crossover signal aggressive speculative positioning, yet no direct company news triggered the move.
• Adobe (ADBE), the sector leader, rose 1.51% as broader tech markets steadied, contrasting CDLX’s idiosyncratic volatility.

Cardlytics’ 36.45% intraday rally has sent shockwaves through its options chain and technical indicators. With a 26.46% turnover rate and a 73.33 RSI near overbought territory, the stock’s surge appears driven by speculative options flows rather than fundamentals. Traders are now pivoting to assess whether the $2.85 intraday high can hold before August 15 expiration.

Options-Driven Volatility Ignites CDLX Surge
Cardlytics’ 36.45% intraday jump lacks direct linkage to company-specific news or earnings reports. Instead, the move aligns with a surge in options activity on the August 15 chain, where the $3 strike call option (CDLX20250815C3) saw 5.4 million shares traded with a 420% price change. The put option (CDLX20250815P3) also saw 15,679 shares traded. Technically, the stock’s 73.33 RSI, MACD crossover (bullish histogram of 0.0155), and a 200-day average of $2.7467 (just below current price) confirm short-term speculative momentum. This suggests algorithmic and retail-driven positioning rather than institutional fundamental conviction.

Software & Services Sector Steadies as Adobe (ADBE) Leads 1.51% Rally
The Software & Services sector, led by Adobe (ADBE)’s 1.51% gain, remains insulated from CDLX’s volatility. While CDLX’s 36.45% move is idiosyncratic, the sector’s stability reflects sustained demand for creative and enterprise software. Broader tech news on AI advancements and cybersecurity has bolstered sector sentiment, but CDLX’s options-driven surge remains disconnected from macro trends.

Capitalizing on CDLX Volatility: Aggressive Options and Technicals for Traders
• 200-day average: 2.7467 (below current price)
• RSI: 73.33 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.0103 (bullish), Signal Line: -0.0052 (bearish), Histogram: 0.0155 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper 1.9428, Middle 1.7435, Lower 1.5442 (price at 2.9152, above upper band)
• Key Levels: 2.85 (intraday high), 2.7467 (200D support), 1.22 (52W low)

With CDLX trading above its 200-day average and 73.33 RSI near overbought territory, the stock presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. Aggressive bulls should focus on the CDLX20250815C3 and CDLX20250815P3 options, which offer liquidity and leverage. The call’s 236.32% implied volatility and 0.5757 delta suggest strong upside participation, while the put’s 197.60% IV and -0.4533 delta provide downside protection. For a 5% upside scenario (ST = 3.06), the call payoff would be $0.06 per share, and the put payoff would be $0.00 (out of the money).

• CDLX20250815C3 (Call)
- Strike Price: $3.00
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 236.32% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: 0.5757 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.015223 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2278 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 275,560 (high liquidity)
- Lverage Ratio: 4.63% (high)
- IV: High volatility indicates aggressive betting
- Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price changes
- Theta: High time decay risks value erosion near expiration
- Gamma: High sensitivity amplifies directional bets
- Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
- Lverage Ratio: High leverage boosts potential returns
- This contract stands out for its high gamma and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish continuation above $2.85.

• CDLX20250815P3 (Put)
- Strike Price: $3.00
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- IV: 197.60% (extreme volatility)
- Delta: -0.4533 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.007958 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2755 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 16,099 (moderate liquidity)
- Lverage Ratio: 3.97% (high)
- IV: High volatility offers downside protection
- Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price drops
- Theta: Moderate time decay reduces erosion risk
- Gamma: High sensitivity cushions against price swings
- Turnover: Moderate liquidity ensures manageable risk
- Lverage Ratio: High leverage amplifies defensive potential
- This put serves as a hedge if the rally stalls, with high gamma and moderate delta balancing risk.

Aggressive bulls may consider CDLX20250815C3 into a break above $2.85, while cautious traders should watch the 2.7467 support level. With options expiration looming on August 15, liquidity may tighten—position accordingly before time decay accelerates.

Backtest Cardlytics Stock Performance
The backtest of CDLX's performance after a 36% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 0.07% on the following day, the 3-day win rate was 50%, the 10-day win rate was 46.86%, and the 30-day win rate was 38.93%. This indicates that CDLX had a higher probability of positive returns in the short term after the surge, but the overall performance over longer periods was negative, with a 3-day return of -0.23%, a 10-day return of -0.92%, and a 30-day return of -3.73%.

Act Now: CDLX’s Volatility Window Narrows—Target $2.85 or Exit by August 15
Cardlytics’ 36.45% intraday surge hinges on its ability to hold the $2.85 level and avoid retesting the 2.7467 support. The stock’s 73.33 RSI and MACD divergence suggest fragile momentum, while the 236.32% IV in the CDLX20250815C3 call indicates aggressive speculative positioning. With Adobe (ADBE) leading the Software & Services sector higher by 1.51%, broader tech stability contrasts CDLX’s idiosyncratic move. Traders must act swiftly: target the $2.85 level for continuation or exit before August 15 expiration, when IV compression and time decay could trigger a liquidity crunch. Watch for a breakdown below 2.7467 to confirm a reversal—position now to capitalize on the final volatility window.