Cardlytics (CDLX) Surges 31% on Citron’s Bullish Call – Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Cardlytics (CDLX) surges 31.34% intraday, hitting $2.83
• Citron Research links CDLX to AmEx’s Platinum card refresh, sparking optimism
• Options chain shows high volatility, with 2025-12-19 $3 calls trading at 85.42% price change
• RSI at 70.54 signals overbought conditions, while MACD (0.219) trends upward

Cardlytics (CDLX) has ignited a 31.34% intraday rally, fueled by Citron Research’s bullish analysis tying the stock to American Express’s Platinum card overhaul. The surge follows months of underperformance, with the stock now trading near its 52-week high of $5.24. High implied volatility in options and a sharp RSI overbought signal suggest a volatile short-term outlook, but analysts remain divided on sustainability.

Citron’s AmEx Link Ignites Short-Term Optimism
The explosive move in CDLX stems from Citron Research’s assertion that Cardlytics is positioned to benefit from American Express’s revamped Platinum card, which emphasizes first-party data-driven rewards. Citron highlighted CDLX’s partnerships with AmEx, Chase, and BofA as a catalyst for a 'next APP-like transformation,' drawing parallels to the success of American Express’s card-linked offers. This narrative has reignited investor interest in Cardlytics’ core business model, which leverages anonymized purchase data to deliver targeted merchant offers. The stock’s 73.4% surge on Thursday (as reported in news) and continued momentum into Friday’s session reflect a belief that financial institutions will increasingly adopt Cardlytics’ platform to compete for high-spending consumers.

Options Playbook: High-Volatility Calls and Gamma-Driven Bets
• 200-day average: 2.22 (below current price)
• RSI: 70.54 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.219 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 2.46 (upper band), far above 1.33 (middle band)

Cardlytics’ technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the stock’s sharp break above key resistance levels and high gamma in options indicate potential for further volatility. Two top options stand out:

• CDLX20251219C3 (Call, $3 strike, 2025-12-19):
- IV: 202.81% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage ratio: 2.94%
- Delta: 0.643 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0059 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.144 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $31,550
- Price change ratio: 85.42%
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.082 per share (max profit if CDLX hits $2.88)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a short-term breakout trade, though theta decay requires swift execution.

• CDLX20260116C3 (Call, $3 strike, 2026-01-16):
- IV: 196.33%
- Leverage ratio: 2.62%
- Delta: 0.669
- Theta: -0.0048
- Gamma: 0.126
- Turnover: $13,928
- Price change ratio: 66.67%
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.082 per share
- Why it stands out: Slightly lower gamma but higher leverage and IV, offering a balance between time decay and price sensitivity for a mid-term hold.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider CDLX20251219C3 into a break above $3.00, while those seeking a safer play could target CDLX20260116C3 for a longer-term position. Both contracts require strict stop-losses due to high IV and theta decay.

Backtest Cardlytics Stock Performance
Key take-aways• Only four instances of 31 %-plus single-day gains have occurred for Cardlytics (CDLX) since 2022. • In the 30 trading-day window following these spikes the share price under-performed: – Average event return after 30 days: -23.3 % vs S&P 500 (proxy) -4.6 %. – Win-rate never exceeded 50 % on any day in the 30-day window and fell to 0 % by day 29. • Statistical tests show no day-level results were significant; however the directional drift is clearly negative.Interpretation A 31 % intraday surge in CDLX has historically been the result of short-squeeze dynamics rather than lasting fundamentals. Fading the rally (or at least not chasing it) has so far been the favorable stance.Next steps (optional) 1. Tighten or broaden the spike threshold (e.g. 25 % or 40 %) to increase sample size. 2. Test shorter exit horizons (5- or 10-day mean reversion). 3. Layer in fundamental filters (e.g. avoid events that coincide with earnings beats).View interactive event-study dashboard →

Bullish Momentum Intact – But Caution Required
Cardlytics’ 31.34% intraday surge reflects a short-term re-rating driven by Citron’s AmEx narrative, but the stock’s overbought RSI and high IV suggest caution. While the 52-week high of $5.24 remains a distant target, the $3 level is a critical psychological hurdle. Investors should monitor the 200-day average at $2.22 and Bollinger Band upper limit at $2.46 for potential pullback triggers. Meanwhile, the sector leader Omnicom Group (OMC) has gained 1.05% today, signaling broader advertising agency sector resilience. Watch for a $3.00 close above the 200-day line to confirm a breakout – otherwise, volatility may force a retest of key support at $1.77.