Cardlytics 15min chart shows Bollinger Bands Narrowing, KDJ Death Cross triggered.

Cardlytics' 15-minute chart has triggered a narrowing of Bollinger Bands, as well as a death cross by KDJ at 10/07/2025 14:45. This indicates a decrease in the magnitude of stock price fluctuations, a shift in momentum towards the downside, and a potential for further decreases in stock price.

Cardlytics Inc. (NASDAQ: CDLX) has been facing significant headwinds in recent quarters, with the stock price experiencing a notable decline following the announcement of a 30% workforce reduction. This move, which impacts approximately 120 full-time employees and contractors, is part of a broader restructuring plan aimed at optimizing the company's cost structure and aligning resources with its core business priorities.

The latest market reaction underscores investor concerns about Cardlytics' financial health and future growth trajectory. The company's stock price fell sharply by 4.7% on Thursday, October 2, 2025, following the workforce reduction announcement Cardlytics Shares Plummet After Announcing 30% Workforce Cut Amid Restructuring^[2]. This comes after a period of volatility, with the 15-minute chart indicating a narrowing of Bollinger Bands and a death cross by KDJ at 10/07/2025 14:45. These indicators suggest a decrease in stock price fluctuations and a shift in momentum towards the downside, potentially signaling further price declines Cardlytics: Debt Overhang Casts Shadow On Upside^[1].

Cardlytics' business model relies on tracking nearly $6 trillion in bank transaction data to offer targeted ads, creating a win-win-win solution for banks, their customers, and advertisers. Despite strong operating leverage, the company has faced multiple revenue headwinds, including significant content restrictions enforced by its largest bank partner, Chase (JPM), starting from Q3 2025 Cardlytics: Debt Overhang Casts Shadow On Upside^[1]. This has resulted in a decrease in adjusted contribution, which is the amount Cardlytics earns after customer rewards and bank revenue share, down 1% year over year in Q2 Cardlytics: Debt Overhang Casts Shadow On Upside^[1].

Management has been proactive in addressing these challenges, implementing expense reductions and streamlining the onboarding process for new financial partners. However, the path to generating positive free cash flow (FCF) remains uncertain, with sequential adjusted contribution growth being crucial for the company's future success Cardlytics: Debt Overhang Casts Shadow On Upside^[1].

The company's debt position is also a significant risk factor. As of the end of Q2, Cardlytics had a net debt of $168 million, with an enterprise value of $293 million. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high, and management needs to demonstrate improved topline growth to refinance the debt upon maturity Cardlytics: Debt Overhang Casts Shadow On Upside^[1].

In conclusion, Cardlytics faces a challenging road ahead, with significant restructuring efforts underway and market indicators suggesting further downward pressure on stock price. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to generate sequential adjusted contribution growth and positive FCF in the coming quarters.

References
Cardlytics: Debt Overhang Casts Shadow On Upside^[1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828010-cardlytics-stock-debt-overhang-significant-headwind-upside
Cardlytics Shares Plummet After Announcing 30% Workforce Cut Amid Restructuring^[2] https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-10-2-cardlytics-shares-plummet-after-announcing-30-workforce-cut-amid-restructuring