Cardano/Yen Market Overview for November 2, 2025

• ADAJPY opened at 94.05, peaked at 95.38, and closed at 92.39, with a 24-hour decline of -1.98%.
• A bearish divergence emerged between rising volume and falling prices, especially after 20:00 ET.
• Key support and resistance levels were tested multiple times, with 94.3 and 95.0 showing reversion potential.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory briefly, while MACD showed bearish crossovers in the afternoon.
• Volatility surged overnight, with a 9.6% range, but narrowed significantly in the last 6 hours.

ADAJPY opened the 24-hour period at 94.05 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached an intraday high of 95.38 before declining to close at 92.39 by 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 15-minute OHLCV dataset was 928,428.5, with a notional turnover of 87,367,498 JPY. Price action showed a sharp bearish reversal from the morning high, with increasing volume confirming downward momentum in the last 10 hours.

The 15-minute chart exhibited a bearish engulfing pattern at 08:00 ET, with a long bullish candle followed by a larger bearish one, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels at 94.3 and 94.0 were tested multiple times, while resistance at 94.8 and 95.0 failed to hold after the morning peak. A potential breakdown below 93.5 could trigger further downside toward 92.5–92.0.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover between the 20 and 50-period lines at 06:00 ET, aligning with the intraday high. On the daily chart, ADAJPY is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish trend in the longer term. The 200-day line remains near 95.5, suggesting a potential bearish target if the pair continues lower.

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line in the afternoon, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory around 10:00 ET before rebounding slightly, but failed to confirm a short-term bottom. Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction in the last 4 hours, suggesting a potential breakout is due—likely to the downside given the prevailing trend. Volume and turnover spiked at 16:00 ET, with a large bearish candle confirming the breakdown below 93.0.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves identifying and acting on candlestick patterns such as the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 08:00 ET. The signal would ideally be validated by a close below the engulfing candle's low, with stop-loss placement above the high of the preceding bullish candle. This approach could be enhanced by incorporating RSI and MACD to filter false signals. A trailing stop might be used once the pattern is confirmed, with profit targets based on Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high. The current volatility environment offers both risk and opportunity, with confirmation of the pattern likely yielding significant short-term returns if the trend continues.