Cardano/Yen Market Overview

• ADAJPY rose 1.2% over the last 24 hours, forming a bullish continuation with increasing volume toward the close.
• Momentum remained positive as RSI edged closer to overbought territory, supported by a strong move above key resistance.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with Bollinger Bands widening as ADAJPY surged past 128.00 on heavy volume.
• Price tested and broke a prior high at 128.19, suggesting a potential trend shift in favor of longs.
• No major divergence seen between price and turnover, affirming strength in the rally.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 126.80 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET and closed at 127.82 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16, reaching a high of 128.85 and a low of 125.80. Total volume was 768,719.4, while turnover amounted to $99,232,256. The pair showed strong bullish momentum and volatility over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The ADAJPY pair exhibited a strong bullish structure over the past 24 hours, with price forming a key breakout above the 128.00 psychological level and confirming this on high volume. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 08:15 ET on 2025-09-16, as price closed at 128.19 after opening at 127.44, signaling strong buyer control. A key support level appears at the 126.50-126.60 range, which was tested multiple times and held during early liquidation phases. A bearish pinocchio candle formed at 03:00 ET as price reversed from 126.74, hinting at short-term profit-taking. The most recent consolidation near 128.15-128.20 suggests a potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation phase before the next move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ADAJPY closed above both the 20-period (127.65) and 50-period (127.32) moving averages, indicating a bullish bias. The 50-period MA acts as a strong dynamic support and is currently trending upward. On the daily chart, the price is above the 50-period (127.10) and 100-period (126.95) moving averages, with the 200-period (126.55) acting as a critical long-term support level. The alignment of these averages confirms the ongoing uptrend and suggests that the 128.00 level could now act as a new baseline for further gains.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line (1.25) crossed above the signal line (1.04), forming a bullish crossover with positive histogram bars expanding, which confirms growing momentum. RSI rose to 61.5 from 54.5, nearing overbought territory but still within healthy levels. This suggests strong buyer participation, though a pullback may be due if the index crosses 65. The divergence between price and RSI remains minimal, indicating a coherent and robust bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased significantly over the past 24 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening as price pushed higher. The upper band reached 128.85 at the day’s peak, while the lower band held near 126.49. Price closed above the upper band, suggesting overbought conditions and a potential for a consolidation phase. The middle band (127.68) now acts as immediate support, and any pullback to this level could find buyers. The expansion of bands highlights the strengthening trend and suggests higher uncertainty in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume remained robust throughout the 24-hour period, with the highest turnover occurring around 13:30 ET when ADAJPY surged to 128.72 on 34,961.1 volume. Total volume reached 768,719.4, with the highest hourly spike near the close at 15:00-16:00 ET when the pair closed at 127.82. Notional turnover exceeded $99 million, with no significant divergences between price and volume, suggesting that the bullish momentum is supported by genuine buying pressure. The volume profile suggests that buyers are in control and may continue to push higher if the trend remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 126.62 to 128.19 (a 1.57 Yen move), the key levels at 38.2% (127.59), 50% (127.91), and 61.8% (128.22) have been clearly tested and held. The price has now closed above the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible extension of the move toward 128.55-128.66. On a broader scale, the daily Fibonacci from 125.80 to 128.85 shows key retracement levels at 127.16 (38.2%), 127.65 (50%), and 128.08 (61.8%). Price has now closed above 128.08, indicating a potential for a continuation of the bullish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves a breakout setup based on the 20-period moving average and Fibonacci retracements. When the price closes above both the 20-period MA and the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and the RSI is above 55 with positive MACD, a long entry could be triggered. A stop loss is placed just below the 50-period moving average, and a take profit is set at the next Fibonacci extension level (78.6%). A backtest of this strategy over the last 24 hours would have captured the 08:15-09:15 ET breakout and held through the following bullish consolidation. This setup is best suited for short-term traders who prefer trend-following setups with clear risk parameters.