Cardano/Yen Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of ¥129.21 before consolidating.
• Strong volume in late-night hours suggests accumulation.
• RSI near 60 indicates moderate momentum with room for extension.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, showing heightened volatility.
• No clear overbought/oversold conditions yet.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-10-02, ADAJPY opened at ¥124.88 and reached an intraday high of ¥129.21 before closing at ¥126.82 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total traded volume for the 24-hour window was 546,034.5, with a turnover of ¥73,165,400. The price displayed a bullish bias in early and late sessions, though it settled lower in afternoon hours, indicating mixed sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a strong bullish bias in the early session, with a high of ¥129.21 followed by a consolidation phase. Key resistance appears to be forming around ¥129.21–129.18, while initial support lies near ¥127.51–127.61. A notable engulfing pattern appears at the early high, followed by a bearish spinning top and a doji at ¥128.04, signaling indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA has been rising in tandem with the 50-period SMA, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 100 and 200-period SMAs, pointing to a longer-term bullish bias, though no major crossovers occurred during the 24-hour period.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the session, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram showed expansion during the early bullish rally, but later contracted as selling pressure increased. RSI moved from overbought territory (above 60) to a more neutral range (around 55) by the end of the period, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke above the upper band during the early rally, reaching ¥129.21, indicating strong volatility. As the session progressed, the bands widened and the price moved toward the middle band, suggesting the market may be returning to a more balanced state. The contraction in volatility toward the close could hint at a setup for another move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early bullish phase (¥129.21–128.40 range) and again in the overnight hours, with a large 15-minute volume of 62,580.9 and a corresponding turnover of ¥8,135,700. This suggests heavy accumulation. However, the price failed to maintain the highs, raising the possibility of profit-taking or distribution at higher levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

A recent 15-minute swing from ¥124.88 to ¥129.21 shows a 61.8% retracement at ¥127.46 and a 38.2% retracement at ¥127.04, which coincided with key price pauses during the consolidation phase. The 50% level at ¥127.04 also served as a support and resistance cluster, aligning with Bollinger Band and moving average levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the price breaks above the 20-period SMA and RSI crosses above 50, with a stop loss placed below the 50-period SMA. This approach would have captured the early 15-minute rally but would have been triggered out by the afternoon pullback. A trailing stop or time-based exit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level could have improved profitability.

Looking ahead, ADAJPY may test ¥129.18 as a short-term ceiling, with potential for a breakout or reversal depending on early-volume behavior. A break below ¥127.51 could lead to further consolidation or a pullback. Investors should remain cautious of divergence between price and RSI, particularly if the pair stalls near ¥128.14 without strong volume confirmation.