Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) Market Overview

• ADAJPY declined 8.5% in 24 hours with bearish momentum intensifying.
• Price tested key support levels at 85.70–86.20, finding short-term relief.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Band widening, indicating increased uncertainty.
• RSI near oversold territory suggests potential for short-term rebound.
• Volume spiked during the breakdown, confirming bearish conviction.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 88.21 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 87.12 the following day. The 24-hour range spanned from a high of 88.73 to a low of 85.70. Total volume amounted to 2,237,310.6 with a notional turnover of ¥194.9 million. Price action remained bearish, with a breakdown in structure and confirmation from both momentum and volume.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure for ADAJPY showed a sustained downward trend with multiple bearish engulfing patterns forming in key timeframes. The breakdown below 86.50 appeared to trigger further selling, with price testing support at 85.70 before bouncing. A doji near the 86.60 level signaled potential exhaustion among sellers, though this was quickly reversed. The 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart remained above the 50-period EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA (87.53) is above the 50-period EMA (86.98), supporting the bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period EMA (87.25) is below the 100-period EMA (88.03), reinforcing the longer-term bearish bias. The 200-period EMA (88.60) remains as a key resistance level and psychological ceiling for any near-term rallies.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12,26) showed a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart, with the histogram expanding lower throughout the session. RSI has moved into oversold territory near 29, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains intact. A move back above 50 would be required to reverse the trend.

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility expanded significantly during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening to capture the sharp decline. Price closed near the lower band (85.70–86.20) during the last 24 hours, suggesting exhaustion at the lower end. A retest of the lower band could provide a buying opportunity if RSI confirms with a rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased during the breakdown phase, with a notable spike at 19:15 ET when ADAJPY fell from 87.75 to 87.26. Notional turnover also rose in tandem with price declines, confirming the bearish sentiment. Divergence between volume and price was minimal, suggesting consistent conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 88.73 to 85.70, the 61.8% level (86.23) is now acting as a potential support. Price has rebounded from this level in the last 24 hours but failed to close above it. The 38.2% retracement (86.86) may become a key resistance if ADAJPY attempts a short-term rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest for the Bearish-Engulfing pattern in ADAJPY could be conducted using raw OHLC data to detect the pattern programmatically. A valid bearish engulfing candle would be defined as a large bearish candle following a smaller bullish candle, where the bear candle’s body fully engulfs the previous candle’s body. A strategy could then be tested: buying on the next open and exiting after 3 days. This approach removes dependency on third-party pattern flags and ensures a consistent and reproducible setup. If executed successfully, this could provide insight into the predictive power of candlestick patterns in this pair.