Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) Market Overview

Summary
• Price traded between 85.82 and 91.03, closing near 88.28 after a volatile session.
• Volume surged to 109,876.3 with strong activity in afternoon hours.
• Momentum dipped slightly toward the end, signaling potential consolidation.

ADAJPY opened at 85.93 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 88.28 by 12:00 ET the next day, with a high of 91.03 and a low of 85.82. The pair reached a total volume of 1,224,941.9 and a turnover of 109,876.3, indicating active trading throughout the day. The price action shows a strong bullish bias early on, but the final hours suggest a pullback and potential bearish exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

ADAJPY formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern early in the session at 17:30–18:00 ET, where the price surged from 87.64 to 89.45, signaling a potential reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. Later, at 23:45–00:00 ET, the candle closed at 88.43 after forming a long upper shadow and a relatively smaller body, hinting at potential resistance around 89.0–89.5. The price then entered a consolidation phase, forming a bearish harami between 00:15–02:00 ET, suggesting a reversal in the bullish bias. Support levels appear to be forming at 88.3–88.5, while key resistance is likely near 89.0–89.3.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bullish crossover early in the session, which supported the upward momentum. However, by the end of the trading window, the 50-period MA began to lag behind the price, indicating a slowdown in bullish strength. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. However, the price is currently hovering near the 50-period MA, which could serve as a key pivot level in the coming session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative by 00:00–02:00 ET, reflecting a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. The histogram also showed a contraction, indicating a weakening bullish trend. The RSI peaked at around 68 during the bullish phase but dropped to 49 by the end of the session, signaling a return to neutral territory. This suggests that while ADAJPY showed strength early on, it may be entering a period of consolidation or a potential pullback in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the bullish phase, reaching a width of nearly 1.1 around 18:15–19:30 ET. The price then began to trade within the narrower bands by 23:45–00:00 ET, suggesting a potential period of reduced volatility. The price closed near the middle band, which is a neutral position, implying that the market is neither overbought nor oversold in the short term. However, the upper band is still visible at around 89.3–89.7, which could serve as a psychological barrier for buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early part of the session, peaking at 82,957.2 at 18:00 ET, coinciding with a strong price rally. Turnover also showed a corresponding rise during this period. However, both metrics declined significantly after 23:45 ET, with volume dropping below 40k for much of the night. This suggests that the initial bullish surge was driven by high participation, but interest waned as the price approached key resistance levels. Divergence between price and volume in the final hours may indicate a potential bearish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing from the low at 85.82 to the high at 91.03, the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels align at 88.16 and 89.19, respectively. The price closed at 88.28, near the 38.2% level, which may serve as a temporary support zone. If the price breaks below this level, the 23.6% retracement at 88.66 could act as a buffer. On the upside, the 61.8% level at 89.19 is a critical target for bulls in the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish engulfing pattern observed in the early session and the divergence in volume during the consolidation phase, a viable backtest hypothesis could involve identifying and acting on bearish reversal signals such as bearish engulfing or harami patterns. A buy-on-breakout strategy could be applied after confirming the 38.2% Fibonacci support holds, with stop-loss placed just below the 88.0 level. A sell strategy could be triggered if the price breaks below 88.16, with a target near 87.75. This approach would align with the observed price structure and the weakening bullish momentum seen in the final hours.