Cardano Whale Activity Surges 10.3% as ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75%

Large whale activity on Cardano (ADA) has intensified in recent days, with approximately $157 million worth of ADA transferred across the network within a 48-hour window. This movement involved around 200 million ADA tokens, significantly increasing whale holdings to 10.3% of the total supply. On-chain data suggests a pattern similar to pre-2021 ADA accumulation, a period that preceded a significant price surge [1].

The increased accumulation has coincided with a notable rise in market sentiment, particularly concerning the prospects of a Cardano ETF approval. According to data from Polymarket, the probability of approval has climbed from 60% to 75% over recent weeks [1]. An ETF approval would represent a major milestone for ADA, potentially enabling institutional investors such as pension funds and hedge funds to access the asset through traditional financial markets.

Long-term holders of ADA have continued to accumulate the token since 2021, showing little to no selling pressure. This behavior indicates strong conviction among long-term investors and suggests a willingness to hold ADA through extended periods of market consolidation [1]. Short-term traders, who often sell during price rallies, have also shown a shift in behavior; rather than taking profits, they have engaged in small-scale accumulation, further signaling a balanced and cautious market environment [1].

Market metrics point to a stable and well-supported price structure. ADA is currently trading in a range of $0.78–$0.81 after retreating slightly from last week’s rally above $0.80. A key resistance level lies at $0.82–$0.83, and a successful breakout above this range could open the door for ADA to reach $0.93, with the $1 level becoming the next potential target [1]. Analysts have suggested that if momentum continues, ADA could see further gains to as high as $2 in the long term [1].

Technical indicators show a balanced market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54.58, indicating that ADA has room to rise before entering overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above the signal line with positive histogram bars, suggesting ongoing upward momentum [1]. Bollinger Bands are compressing around the upper boundary, signaling accumulating bullish momentum but also indicating the potential for short-term corrections if overbought conditions arise [1].

Open interest in ADA derivatives has reached $1.44 billion, one of the highest levels in months. This suggests growing trader participation and heightened price volatility [1]. Meanwhile, key support remains intact at $0.70, a level where ADA has consistently drawn buyers since mid-2023. The formation of higher lows on weekly charts further supports the idea of ongoing accumulation [1].

The end-of-August price target for ADA is estimated between $0.95 and $1.015, assuming the current bullish structure remains intact. A strong volume-based breakout above $0.884 could help drive ADA toward this range [1]. However, traders remain cautious about failed resistance attempts, which could lead to a retest of the $0.70 support level or even corrections down to $0.60 or $0.51 [1].

Overall, Cardano’s current market dynamics reflect a combination of strong holder conviction and favorable technical positioning. This convergence of factors creates a scenario that could support further price appreciation in the near term, especially if the anticipated ETF approval comes to fruition [1].

Source: [1] Cardano (ADA) Price: Whale Frenzy Moves $157M as ETF Chances Hit 75% (https://blockonomi.com/cardano-ada-price-whale-frenzy-moves-157m-as-etf-chances-hit-75/)