Cardano/Tether Market Overview

• ADA/USDT declined 6.6% over 24 hours, breaking below prior support and testing 0.6363.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI (14) below 30 and MACD bearish cross.
• Volatility spiked late morning ET, with $24M turnover in the 2025-10-28 19:45–20:00 ET window.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests potential reversal or continuation ahead.
• Hammer patterns in early evening ET signal potential short-term bounce.

The ADAUSDT pair for Cardano/Tether opened at 0.6635 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.6390 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29. The price touched a high of 0.6715 and a low of 0.6363 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 34,998,839.08 ADA, with notional turnover totaling approximately $22.16 million. The pair appears to be in a consolidation phase following a sharp bearish breakdown.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours revealed a strong bearish bias. After breaking below the 0.6500 psychological level, ADA/USDT tested the 0.6363 support, forming a potential hammer pattern at the end of the session. This may indicate short-term buying interest at lower levels, though a break below the 0.6363 level could extend the downward move. The 0.6650–0.6660 zone, which held as resistance earlier, is now likely to act as support if there is a bounce. A doji formed on the 2025-10-28 19:30 candle, signaling indecision and increased volatility around the 0.6568 price level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the price, indicating a bearish trend. The 50-period moving average is currently at 0.6525, and the 20-period is at 0.6497, both showing downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.6610, and the 100-period MA at 0.6650, while the 200-period MA is around 0.6700. This suggests that the pair is trading well below its longer-term averages, and any rebound may face resistance from these levels.

MACD & RSI

The 14-period RSI has dropped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, although this does not guarantee a reversal. The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 19:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. Both indicators suggest continued downward pressure, though RSI divergence during the last 30 minutes could hint at a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

The price has spent much of the 24-hour period near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating high volatility and weak momentum. A contraction in the band width occurred from 19:00 to 20:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion, suggesting increased volatility and potential for a reversal. If the price remains above the 0.6363 level, a retracement to the 0.6460–0.6480 range may follow, but a break below that level could see further downside toward 0.6300.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked sharply during the 2025-10-28 19:45–20:00 ET window, with nearly $24 million in turnover. This coincided with the 0.6363 support level test. However, volume has since declined, suggesting a lack of conviction in the current bearish move. Price and turnover appear to be diverging slightly in the last two hours, with turnover decreasing while the price remains near a multi-day low. This could hint at a potential reversal if buyers step in.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.6715 to 0.6363, the 23.6% level is at 0.6606, the 38.2% at 0.6535, and the 61.8% at 0.6445. Price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level, which may act as a short-term pivot. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader bearish trend lies near 0.6500, a key level to watch for possible retesting.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described suggests using an event-based approach to analyze post-pattern returns after a hammer candle forms, such as the one observed on the 2025-10-28 19:30 candle. This method would allow for an analysis of the 3-day price performance following such patterns. Given the current bearish momentum and the hammer pattern, a backtest could help validate whether this formation historically leads to short-term bounces or further declines. Integrating such insights into a broader technical framework—such as Fibonacci levels or moving average crossovers—could provide a more robust strategy.