Cardano/Tether (ADAUSDT) Market Overview: Volatility and Correction on 24-Hour Chart

• ADAUSDT opened at $0.5992 and closed at $0.5757, with a 24-hour high of $0.6118 and low of $0.5259.
• Price declined ~7.2% over 24 hours amid high-volume breakdowns and negative momentum on RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp pullback from $0.6118 to $0.5259, indicating potential short-term instability.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, with price briefly testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level of a key intra-day swing.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming the move, but divergence may hint at exhaustion if price stabilizes near $0.55–$0.56.

Market Summary and Daily Price Action

Cardano/Tether (ADAUSDT) opened at $0.5992 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.5757 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.6118 and a low of $0.5259. The pair experienced a sharp selloff over the 24-hour period, dropping to a 24-hour low as the price broke key support levels. Total volume traded was approximately 243,224,390 ADA, while notional turnover (volume * price) was around $135.7 million, showing significant activity during the selloff.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals several key structures and candlestick patterns over the 24-hour period. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed as the price moved from $0.6081 to $0.6056 on 23:30 ET to $0.6056 to $0.6051 on 00:00 ET. Later, as the price fell into the $0.5500–$0.5600 range, a long-legged doji emerged near $0.5505, indicating indecision. The price then broke below critical support levels, including the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of a swing high from $0.5259 to $0.5517.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) were both bearish, with the 50-period line running well below the 20-period, confirming the downward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA was around $0.6000, and the 200-period SMA was at $0.5850, indicating the price is currently well below both, suggesting a long-term bearish bias.

MACD and RSI

The MACD indicator turned negative and remained below zero for much of the 24-hour period, confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory at the end of the 24-hour window, reaching as low as 25, which may indicate a potential short-term rebound or consolidation. However, the prolonged bearish move suggests exhaustion is likely not a strong indicator of reversal in this context.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was significantly higher during the selloff from $0.6118 to $0.5259, with Bollinger Bands expanding wide. The price tested the lower band multiple times and briefly closed below it, suggesting a continuation of bearish bias. The contraction of the bands has not occurred, indicating that volatility remains elevated.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline in price, particularly between 15:30 ET and 16:15 ET, with the largest turnover occurring on the candle that closed at $0.5516, where $0.5725 was the open and $0.5259 was the low. This suggests strong bearish conviction. However, a divergence between price and volume appears as the price continues lower while volume decreases, potentially signaling a short-term pause in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key swing high ($0.6118) and swing low ($0.5259), the 38.2% retrace is at $0.5712, and the 61.8% retrace is at $0.5517. The price briefly found support at the 61.8% level before breaking lower, indicating that it may not hold in the near term.

Forward Outlook and Risk

The immediate focus is on whether ADAUSDT can stabilize near $0.5500 or find support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A break below $0.5450 could accelerate the bearish momentum. Investors should monitor the RSI for signs of overextension and the Bollinger Bands for potential contraction. Overall, while the bearish bias remains intact, a rebound into the $0.55–$0.56 range could offer a short-term trading opportunity.

Backtest Hypothesis

For backtesting purposes, it is essential to use the correct ticker symbol that aligns with the pricing source. In the case of ADAUSDT, the most accurate symbols depend on the exchange being referenced. Commonly used tickers for major exchanges include “ADAUSDT.BINANCE,” “ADAUSDT.COINBASE,” and “ADAUSDT.KRAKEN.” If the backtest engine returned an error due to an incorrect ticker, it likely means that the symbol provided (e.g., “ADAUSD.UDC”) does not match the expected format or data source.

To improve the accuracy of the backtest, ensure the symbol includes the exchange. For example, using “ADAUSDT.BINANCE” will fetch the correct price data from Binance. Once the correct ticker is used, the backtest strategy can be rerun to evaluate its performance with the appropriate price series. This adjustment ensures that the backtest results align with the actual market behavior and can be used to validate the strategy’s robustness.