Cardano/Tether (ADAUSDT) Market Overview

Summary• Price declined from 0.5693 to 0.5462, with a 24-hour range of 0.5693–0.5290.
• RSI hit oversold levels, but recovery attempts stalled near 0.5500.
• Volatility expanded, with volume spiking at key support levels.

Cardano/Tether (ADAUSDT) opened at 0.5693 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET and closed at 0.5462 by 2025-11-04 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.5693 and a low of 0.5290. Total 15-minute volume over the period was 83,047,234 ADA, with notional turnover reaching $45,134,326.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a bearish continuation, with a large negative range and multiple rejection attempts near 0.5500–0.5550. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible as the pair moved from 0.5612 to 0.5528 during the early morning hours, reinforcing near-term bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around 0.5300 and 0.5450, with a recent rejection at 0.5500. A potential triple bottom structure is forming near 0.5450, suggesting buyers could re-enter the market if the price holds above this level. No clear reversal patterns formed on the 15-minute chart, but a long lower shadow at 0.5409–0.5418 hinted at short-term stabilisation.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are in a steep bearish alignment, with the 50-period MA currently at 0.5530. The daily 50-period MA is at 0.5485, and the 200-period MA is at 0.5455, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. Price appears to be approaching the 200-period MA, which may offer limited support in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line below the signal line and both in negative territory, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI has been in oversold territory (below 30) for multiple periods, which could indicate a potential bounce but has not yet generated a convincing reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the price moved from the upper to lower Bollinger Band. The price closed near the lower band at 0.5462, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, but further consolidation below the middle band (0.5490) may pressure support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key support levels (e.g., 0.5300–0.5400) and near 0.5500, indicating accumulation or rejection activity. Notional turnover also rose at these levels, suggesting market participants are actively managing positions. Price and volume aligned during the breakdown near 0.5450 but diverged slightly during the 0.5500–0.5550 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price is trading near the 61.8% retracement level of the recent upswing from 0.5290 to 0.5564. A break below this level could target 0.5342–0.5382. On the daily chart, the price is approaching the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2025 upmove, suggesting a potential turning point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based "Oversold, 3-Day Hold" strategy has historically delivered a total return of ~196.8% and an annualised return of ~26.3% since 2022. While the strategy shows potential, its max drawdown of ~36.2% and Sharpe ratio of ~0.65 highlight the need for careful risk management. Given ADAUSDT’s current RSI in oversold territory, a 3-day hold could be considered, though the bearish alignment of moving averages and key support levels may influence the trade outcome.