Cardano’s Survival Hinges on Bitcoin’s DeFi Revolution

Cardano (ADA) is positioning itself for a potential breakout as technical indicators and market developments align in its favor. The cryptocurrency has drawn attention from traders and analysts, particularly as anticipation grows around potential U.S. regulatory developments, including the approval of a spot ADA exchange-traded fund (ETF). On prediction platform Polymarket, the implied probability of such an ETF being approved before the end of 2025 has surged to 79 percent—the highest level since the market opened—signaling increased confidence among market participants [3]. This optimism is supported by behind-the-scenes discussions between regulators and major asset managers, with experts suggesting that the likelihood of approval for altcoin ETFs has climbed to nearly 90 percent [3].

From a technical perspective, ADA is showing signs of consolidation and potential upward momentum. Traders are watching key levels closely, with the token currently priced near $0.827 and maintaining stability above its 50-week simple moving average at $0.746 [2]. If ADA can break through the $1.25 resistance level, it could face further targets at $1.50 and $1.80, with some analysts suggesting an ambitious goal of $3 by the end of the year [2]. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index, indicate balanced but positive movement, reinforcing the potential for a sustained rally.

However, Cardano faces significant challenges in terms of adoption and narrative. The chain’s ecosystem, while evolving, lags far behind competitors such as Ethereum and Solana. As of 2025, Cardano has only 59 working decentralized apps (dApps), far below the thousands of dApps that had been forecasted by founder Charles Hoskinson in 2022 [1]. The chain’s largest dApp, a decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator, has less than 1,000 daily active wallets, and it lacks robust stablecoin infrastructure [1]. These limitations have drawn criticism from prominent figures such as Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who has questioned the chain’s viability and relevance in the broader crypto ecosystem [1].

In response, Hoskinson has argued that Cardano’s future lies in positioning itself as a complementary smart contract layer for Bitcoin DeFi, tapping into Bitcoin’s massive liquidity pool [1]. This strategic shift could provide a new narrative and value proposition for the chain, particularly if Bitcoin DeFi gains traction as a stable and scalable market. Whether or not this vision materializes will depend on the success of Cardano’s upcoming integrations, such as the development of stablecoins like USDM and the adoption of wallets like Lace.

The coming weeks and months will be pivotal for ADA as both technical levels and external catalysts converge to determine its trajectory. While the price has experienced some short-term volatility, the broader macroeconomic environment, including potential U.S. interest rate cuts and ETF approvals, could create favorable conditions for a breakout [2]. If Cardano can overcome its current challenges and establish a clear value proposition, it may yet carve out a role in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

Source:

[1] Now That Cardano is Dead What's The Next Big Thing ... (https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/now-that-cardano-is-dead-whats-the-next-big-thing-ada-price-prediction/)

[2] Cardano News: Can Rate Cuts Ignite a Breakout? (https://thetradable.com/crypto/cardano-news-can-rate-cuts-ignite-a-breakout-ig--m)

[3] Cardano ETF Approval Odds Hit Record High on Polymarket (https://cryptodnes.bg/en/cardano-etf-approval-odds-hit-record-high-on-polymarket/)