Cardano Price Poised for 19.76% Rally as Key Resistance Looms

Cardano (ADA), known for its deliberate approach to blockchain development, is currently at a critical technical juncture. While other major altcoins are experiencing significant price swings in tandem with Bitcoin, Cardano's price has been quietly consolidating, seemingly overlooked by traders focused on faster-moving assets. However, the charts indicate a different narrative—one of compression, preparation, and a potential breakout that could surprise the market.

ADA is currently trading just below a key resistance cluster and has formed a steady base above its local support. This consolidation phase suggests a potential rally. The daily chart shows ADA trading at $0.668, slightly above a short-term support zone around $0.65, which has held strong for four consecutive sessions. The price is attempting to reclaim the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently acting as resistance between $0.71 and $0.72. The compression of moving averages often precedes a strong move, either up or down.

Volume remains relatively low, indicating that retail traders are waiting for confirmation. However, Heikin Ashi candles on the daily chart are showing shorter lower wicks and smaller body sizes, often an early sign of selling pressure fading. Fibonacci retracement levels anchored from the May swing high to the recent low suggest a resistance band at $0.72–$0.76. A daily close above this range could push ADA toward the 0.618 Fib level near $0.80.

The hourly chart shows ADA price forming a base around $0.66. This accumulation phase has been steady, with multiple hourly candles closing above both the 20-SMA and 50-SMA, which are converging around the $0.66 zone. This convergence acts as a short-term bullish bias. Notably, price is trying to break above the 200-hour SMA, which is a widely-watched level by swing traders. A trendline drawn from the June 5th high down to current levels was tested recently, and ADA price is attempting a breakout above that descending resistance. If this hourly breakout sustains, we could expect a short-term push to $0.72, followed by $0.75 based on the visible pivot zones.

If ADA moves from $0.668 to the $0.80 resistance, that’s an increase of 19.76%, which is a realistic short-term upside assuming Bitcoin remains steady and altcoins rotate upward. The 200-day SMA on the daily chart is still sloping down, sitting around $0.82, which suggests the larger trend is bearish. However, if ADA price closes above the 100-day SMA ($0.71) and flips it into support, it would be the first bullish crossover in nearly a month. This confluence of reclaiming resistance and breaking out from moving average compression makes the case for a short-term rally strong.

Moreover, if Cardano breaches the $0.76 swing high from early May, the momentum could quickly carry it toward $0.80 and potentially to $0.85 based on past volume profile gaps. If the $0.65 support fails, the next strong demand zone lies near $0.60. A break below this would invalidate the bullish setup and open the door to a fall toward the $0.52 zone, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone from early April. This downside represents a 22% loss, so traders should be cautious with tight stop-loss levels just below $0.65.

The charts suggest Cardano price is approaching a pivotal moment. A confirmed breakout above $0.72 could lead to a rapid 15–20% upside. However, the 200-day SMA and descending trendline resistance are still key hurdles. While long-term investors might view this as a buying opportunity near support, swing traders should watch for a breakout and retest before committing to a position. If Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market remain neutral to slightly bullish, Cardano price could outperform in the next few weeks. All eyes are now on whether Cardano can break the $0.72 ceiling—or get pulled back into the shadows. Let’s watch the charts closely. The next big move may already be brewing.