Cardano's Potential to Overtake Tron in the Top 10 Cryptocurrencies: A Technical and On-Chain Momentum Analysis

The cryptocurrency market’s top 10 rankings have long been a barometer of institutional and retail sentiment, with Cardano (ADA) and Tron (TRX) locked in a fierce battle for dominance. As of September 2025, ADA has edged past TRX in market capitalization, securing the 8th spot with a valuation of $30.17–$33.5 billion, while TRX holds the 9th position at $32.06–$33.07 billion [1]. This inversion, though narrow, is driven by a confluence of technical and on-chain factors that suggest ADA’s momentum could solidify its lead—or even propel it toward a top-5 resurgence.

Technical Indicators: ADA’s Breakout and TRX’s Stagnation

Cardano’s recent price action has been marked by a breakout above critical resistance levels. ADA’s price surged to $0.8440, with a 28.24% increase in 24-hour trading volume to $1.09 billion [1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ADA currently sits at 48.00, indicating neutral momentum with room for upward movement without entering overbought territory [4]. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows -0.0073, signaling weakening bearish momentum and hinting at a potential trend reversal [4].

If ADA breaches $0.97—a key resistance level—analysts project a path to $1.02 and eventually $1.15–$1.20 within 4–6 weeks [4]. This trajectory would push ADA’s market cap beyond $32.1 billion, cementing its position above TRX. In contrast, TRX’s technical indicators paint a less optimistic picture. While its price remains at $0.3386, the RSI is at 46.17, and the MACD histogram reads -0.0026, reflecting mixed momentum and a bearish bias [2]. TRX is consolidating near $0.34, with resistance at $0.35 and support at $0.30. A failure to break above $0.35 could trap TRX in a $0.33–$0.37 trading range, limiting its upside potential [2].

On-Chain Momentum: Whale Activity and Network Utility

On-chain metrics further underscore ADA’s advantage. Whale activity in ADA has surged, with increased buying volume and large wallet accumulations suggesting institutional-grade confidence [1]. For instance, two prominent addresses, TNQsyU and TWfFe1, collectively acquired 15.144 million TRX during a 3.71% price dip—a “buy the dip” strategy that reflects strategic accumulation [1]. However, ADA’s whale activity has outpaced TRX’s, with a 10% year-to-date increase in whale transactions and a 28.24% spike in trading volume [1].

TRX’s on-chain strength lies in its utility-driven demand. The TRON network processes 80% of its daily volume in USDT transactions, which require TRX for gas fees [1]. This creates a flywheel effect: higher USDT volume drives TRX demand. Yet, ADA’s ecosystem is gaining traction through its focus on smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps), which could attract developers and users seeking alternatives to Ethereum.

Market Sentiment and Institutional Backing

Market sentiment for ADA is bolstered by its founder, Charles Hoskinson, who has publicly declared ADA “the best-performing asset against Bitcoin and TRX over the past year” [3]. This narrative, combined with ADA’s technical resilience, has drawn attention from investors seeking exposure to a project with long-term scalability goals.

TRX, meanwhile, faces mixed sentiment. While institutional investments—such as Tron Inc.’s $110 million treasury expansion—have reinforced its fundamentals [3], technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum. The Fear and Greed Index for TRX remains neutral at 43, with no clear shift toward euphoria or panic [1]. Additionally, TRX’s circulating supply (250 billion tokens) dwards ADA’s (45 billion), making it harder to achieve significant price appreciation without massive inflows [2].

Catalysts and Risks

ADA’s path to overtaking TRX hinges on two key catalysts:
1. Price Breakouts: A clean close above $0.97 would validate ADA’s bullish case and trigger a wave of retail and institutional buying.
2. Ecosystem Growth: Continued adoption of Cardano’s smart contract platform and partnerships with DeFi projects could drive utility-driven demand.

However, risks persist. Both ADA and TRX face competition from projects like Solana and XRP, which are gaining traction in the top 10. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny could dampen momentum if either project faces compliance challenges.

Conclusion

Cardano’s technical and on-chain momentum positions it as a strong contender to maintain its lead over Tron in the top 10. While TRX’s utility in the stablecoin ecosystem provides a floor for its price, ADA’s breakout above $0.97 and sustained whale activity suggest a more aggressive trajectory. Investors should monitor ADA’s ability to hold key resistance levels and the broader market’s appetite for scalable blockchain solutions. If ADA’s rally continues, the top 10 rankings may soon reflect a new era of Cardano-led innovation.

**Source:[1] Cardano May Overtake Tron in Top 10 If Rally Continues ...,
https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604953117[2] TRON vs Cardano Crypto Comparison,
https://www.bitdegree.org/cryptocurrency-comparison/tron-vs-cardano[3] Cardano Founder Publicly Declares ADA “The Best-...”,
https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1096130-20250904[4] ADA Price Prediction: Cardano Eyes $0.97 Breakout With $1.15 Target by October 2025,
https://blockchain.news/news/20250906-price-prediction-target-ada-cardano-eyes-097-breakout-with-115