Cardano's Path to $1.90: Critical Resistance Levels and Market Sentiment Analysis

Cardano (ADA) has long been a focal point for investors seeking exposure to the next wave of blockchain innovation. As of September 2025, ADA trades at $0.956, per exchangerates.org.uk, positioning it near critical resistance levels that could determine its trajectory toward $1.90. This article synthesizes technical and on-chain indicators to assess ADA's breakout potential, offering a roadmap for investors navigating this pivotal juncture.

Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle and Fibonacci Targets

ADA's price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic consolidation structure often preceding a decisive breakout. The pattern's upper boundary is defined by resistance at $0.96, while the lower boundary sits near $0.83–$0.85, according to a CoinEdition report. A weekly close above $0.90 would validate the pattern, potentially triggering a rally toward $1.28–$1.90, as highlighted by Fibonacci extension levels in a Coinotag analysis.

Key technical indicators reinforce this narrative:
- RSI and MACD show improving momentum, with the RSI hovering near overbought territory and the MACD forming bullish divergences, per the Coinotag analysis.
- The Ichimoku cloud suggests a shift in trend, with ADA's price above the cloud's upper band, signaling strong bullish bias, as noted in the Coinotag analysis.

However, immediate resistance at $0.83–$0.85 remains a hurdle. A failure to break above this level could see ADA retesting $0.70, a former support-turned-resistance from March 2025, according to CoinEdition.

On-Chain Metrics: Mixed Signals Amid Structural Strength

On-chain data paints a nuanced picture. While network transaction volume hit $5.3 billion in a single week-a year-high-ADA's NVT ratio has surged to levels not seen since June 2024, as reported by The Financial Analyst. This metric, which compares market cap to transaction value, suggests ADA may be overvalued relative to its on-chain activity. However, the 90-day adjusted NVT ratio has dropped to 1.61 from 5.32 in November 2024, indicating undervaluation when adjusted for transaction volume, per a CryptoBasic analysis.

Whale activity adds further complexity:
- Large holders have offloaded 30 million ADA in a week, signaling short-term profit-taking, according to The Financial Analyst.
- Conversely, exchange outflows of $73 million in 2025 and billions moving to self-custody wallets suggest long-term accumulation, as reported by The Tradable report.

Daily active addresses remain stable at 50,828, and new address growth of 4.79% in Q3 2025 underscores sustained adoption, according to CryptoBasic. These metrics imply that while short-term selling pressure exists, structural demand from institutional and retail investors remains robust.

Market Sentiment: Institutional Buying and Macro Tailwinds

Institutional flows are a critical catalyst. Coinbase's 462% surge in ADA holdings and custody balances exceeding $900 million highlight growing institutional confidence, as noted in a CoinEdition report. Additionally, derivatives data shows 78% of XRP positions on Binance are long, a bullish sentiment proxy that could spill over to ADA, per BTCC coverage.

Macro factors also favor ADA:
- Fed rate cuts in September 2025 could drive risk-on sentiment, with analysts projecting ADA to $3.00 if macroeconomic conditions align, according to The Financial Analyst.
- The MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) indicates most holders remain in profit, reducing the likelihood of forced selling at $1.00, as observed by The Financial Analyst.

Breakout Confirmation and Risk Factors

For ADA to reach $1.90, it must:
1. Break above $0.96 with strong volume to confirm the triangle pattern.
2. Hold above $0.83–$0.85 to avoid a retest of $0.70.
3. Sustain institutional buying amid macroeconomic volatility.

Risks include a prolonged bearish NVT ratio and whale outflows exceeding 100 million ADA, which could trigger a pullback to $0.70–$0.65, as warned by The Financial Analyst.

Conclusion

Cardano's path to $1.90 hinges on a successful breakout above $0.96 and sustained institutional demand. While on-chain metrics like the NVT ratio and whale activity introduce volatility, the confluence of technical patterns, rising adoption, and macro tailwinds creates a compelling case for a bullish near-term outlook. Investors should monitor volume at key resistance levels and institutional flows to time entry points effectively.