Cardano News Today: Whales Sell, Retailers Buy as ADA Balances on a Knife's Edge

Cardano's ADA price remains in a precarious balance as conflicting signals from whale activity and retail accumulation shape the market's trajectory. Despite a recent sell-off of 180 million ADA by large investors, which pushed the price to $0.7046, smaller traders continue to buy, stabilizing the token near key support levels, according to a BlockNews report. This divergence between institutional and retail sentiment has sparked debate over whether ADA is poised for a rebound or faces further downward pressure.

Whale Behavior: Mixed Signals and Market Impact

Large investors, or "whales," have exhibited a pattern of both accumulation and offloading in recent weeks. Santiment data shows that wallets holding 10–100 million ADA increased holdings by 140 million tokens—worth $89.6 million—between October 10–12, even as the price dropped 20%, according to CoinCentral. This buying pressure coincided with the token stabilizing near $0.645, suggesting whales may be positioning for a potential recovery, as reported by AMBCrypto. However, a separate report from The Currency Analytics highlights that over 100 million ADA was sold by whale wallets in a single week, contributing to a 9.62% weekly price decline. Analyst Ali Martinez noted in CoinEdition that such large-scale sell-offs often signal bearish sentiment, particularly when they coincide with dips toward critical levels like $0.80.

Retail Resilience and Technical Indicators

Retail traders, meanwhile, have emerged as a stabilizing force. The Money Flow Index (MFI) has shown inflows despite ADA's price decline, indicating sustained buying interest, according to CoinCentral. Yahoo Finance notes that retail accumulation has pushed the total number of ADA holders above 4.46 million, a sign of growing confidence in the asset's long-term potential. However, technical indicators remain mixed. The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks professional trader positioning, remains weak, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to show bullish divergence, according to Yahoo Finance. A descending triangle pattern on the daily chart also raises concerns about a potential breakdown below $0.61, as CoinCentral observed.

Price Outlook and Analyst Predictions

Analysts are split on ADA's near-term prospects. While some remain cautious, others see a path for recovery. Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, argues in CoinEdition that ADA is building momentum for a larger move, with $0.74–$0.80 identified as a key accumulation zone before a potential breakout. Meanwhile, Blockchain.News projects a $0.97–$1.15 target range by October 2025, contingent on ADA breaking above $0.78 resistance. On the bearish side, a breakdown below $0.61 could accelerate selling toward $0.55, according to Yahoo Finance.

Whale Activity and Market Volatility

The recent volatility underscores the influence of whale activity on ADA's price. For instance, a 200 million ADA accumulation by large and mid-tier holders—valued at $140 million—occurred as eToro launched ADA staking for U.S. users, potentially reducing liquidity and supporting the price, according to CoinCentral. Conversely, a 100 million ADA sell-off by mid-sized wallets last week highlighted ongoing bearish pressure, as reported by AMBCrypto. These conflicting actions reflect uncertainty in the market, with whales seemingly testing support levels while retail investors add to positions.

Conclusion

Cardano's ADA price remains at a critical juncture, with whale activity and retail confidence pulling in opposite directions. While technical indicators and analyst predictions suggest both potential for a rebound and risks of further decline, the immediate focus is on whether buyers can sustain higher closes above $0.68 to trigger a short-term recovery. Traders will closely monitor whale behavior, RSI divergence, and key resistance levels as ADA navigates this fragile phase.