Cardano News Today: Investors Shift to Mutuum as Cardano's Price Balances on a Knife Edge

Cardano (ADA) faces a critical juncture as analysts warn of a potential price collapse to $0.25 if key support levels fail, amid mixed signals from technical indicators and macroeconomic factors. The cryptocurrency, currently hovering near $0.52, has tested this level multiple times this year, weakening its reliability as a floor, according to a CoinEdition analysis. Dan Gambardello, a prominent crypto analyst, cautions that ADA's fate is closely tied to broader market conditions, particularly Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) movements. "If BTC/ETH capitulates, ADA will follow—and liquidity constraints could push it below $0.25," he stated, as the CoinEdition piece noted.

Technical analysis underscores the fragility of ADA's near-term outlook. The asset has been trapped in a declining trend since October 2025, forming lower highs and lower lows on daily charts, the CoinEdition report observed.

A breakdown below $0.52 could trigger a cascade to $0.35–$0.45, with further declines to $0.25–$0.35 possible if macro liquidity fails to materialize, the CoinEdition analysis added. Wintermute, a liquidity provider, noted that capital has been rotating internally within crypto markets, compounding risks for ADA holders, according to the CoinEdition coverage.

Despite the bearish scenario, bulls point to fundamental upgrades and institutional interest as potential catalysts for a rebound. Cardano's roadmap includes the Leios and Hydra L2 protocols, which aim to enhance scalability and decentralization, the CoinEdition piece said. Charles Hoskinson, Cardano's founder, has urged patience, emphasizing that these upgrades are set to launch in the coming months, per CoinEdition. Institutional adoption also offers hope: Grayscale's anticipated spot ADA ETF and rising open interest—up from $580 million to $672 million in 24 hours—suggest lingering demand, the CoinEdition coverage noted.

However, recent on-chain data paints a grim picture. ADA's long-to-short ratio stands at 0.75, the lowest this month, reflecting a bearish sentiment, according to a TradingView article. Daily active addresses on the Cardano network have dropped to 24,280 from 32,115 in mid-October, signaling waning user engagement, TradingView noted. Meanwhile, whale activity has contributed to downward pressure, with large investors trimming ADA holdings, according to a CryptoPotato report.

A glimmer of optimism emerged as the TD Sequential indicator flagged a potential reversal on the 3-day chart, marked by a red "9" candle—a sign often associated with the end of downtrends, as CryptoPotato reported earlier. Analysts, however, caution that confirmation via a breakout or surge in volume is needed before declaring a turnaround, the CryptoPotato piece added.

The market's focus has also shifted to Mutuum Finance (MUTM), a rising DeFi project in presale, as investors rotate capital toward assets with perceived higher growth potential, according to a Cryptopolitan article. MUTM's presale has raised $18.45 million, attracting 17,720 investors, and its low entry price of $0.035 has drawn comparisons to ADA's current bearish trajectory, the Cryptopolitan coverage noted.

Looking ahead, ADA's path hinges on macroeconomic developments. A pause in the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) could restore liquidity to crypto markets, fueling a rebound, the CoinEdition analysis previously suggested. Conversely, prolonged QT and a lack of institutional inflows may deepen the slump. Derivatives data from CoinGlass shows ADA's funding rate turned positive recently—a bullish sign historically linked to short squeezes and rallies, CoinEdition observed.

Cardano's technical chart suggests a symmetrical triangle pattern near $0.65, with a potential breakout above $0.80 targeting $1.10–$1.70 if the x402 AI integration drives utility adoption, according to a Coinotag analysis. Yet, without sustained volume, this scenario remains speculative.